DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE
FOR THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMPONENT STUDIES
FOR THE PETITCODIAC RIVER CAUSEWAY ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Submitted to:
New Brunswick Department of Supply and Services
Fredericton, New Brunswick

Submitted by:
AMEC Earth & Environmental Limited
Fredericton, New Brunswick

June 30, 2003

TE23580.1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0   INTRODUCTION

2.0   PRELIMINARY DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMPONENT STUDIES

2.1   LAND USE AND VALUE

2.1.1   Background

2.1.2   Issues and Concerns

2.1.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.1.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.1.5   Mitigation Options

2.1.6   Information Requirements

2.2.1   Background

2.2.2   Issues and Concerns

2.2.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.2.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.2.5   Mitigation Options

2.2.6   Information Requirements

2.3.1   Background

2.3.2   Issues and Concerns

2.3.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.3.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.3.5   Mitigation Options

2.3.6   Information Requirements

2.4.1   Background

2.4.2   Issues and Concerns

2.4.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.4.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.4.5   Mitigation Options

2.4.6   Information Requirements

2.5.1   Background

2.5.2   Issues and Concerns

2.5.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.5.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.5.5   Mitigation Options

2.5.6   Information Requirements

2.6.1   Background

2.6.2   Issues and Concerns

2.6.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.6.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.6.5   Mitigation Options

2.6.6   Information Requirements

2.7.1   Background

2.7.2   Key Issues and Concerns

2.7.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.7.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.7.5   Mitigation Options

2.7.6   Information Requirements

2.8.1   Background

2.8.2   Key Issues and Concerns

2.8.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.8.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.8.5   Mitigation Options

2.8.6   Information Requirements

2.9.1   Background

2.9.2   Issues and Concerns

2.9.3   Project Environmental Effects

2.9.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.9.5   Mitigation Options

2.9.6   Information Requirements

LIST OF TABLES

Moncton Region - Tourism Attractions

LIST OF ACRONYMS

1.0   INTRODUCTION

1.1   Purpose

   This document provides the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the socio-economic component studies of the Petitcodiac River Causeway Environmental Impact Assessment (“EIA”). Comments from the New Brunswick Department of Supply and Services (DSS), the Technical Review Committee (TRC) and participants of the Socio-economic Workshop1 held May 31, 2003, on a preliminary draft of this document have been incorporated into this document.

The document describes the elements of the proposed work plan and study for each aspect of the socio-economic environment that may be affected by the Project Options or Status Quo. The socio-economic component of the Petitcodiac River Causeway Environmental Impact Assessment is comprised of the following sub-components:

• Land Use and Value;
• Labour and Economy;
• Municipal Services and Infrastructure;
• Transportation Network;
• Vessel Traffic and Navigation;
• Archaeology and Heritage;
• Tourism;
• Wildlife and Vegetation;
• Recreation; and
• Public Health and Safety.

The socio-economic component study TOR reflects the outcome of the work undertaken in the Phase 1 - Scoping of the EIA, as outlined in Section 2.1.1 of the Terms of Reference for the Environmental Impact Assessment for the Modifications to the Petitcodiac River Causeway, AMEC Earth & Environmental Limited (AMEC), 2003. These scoping activities have included discussions regarding the confirmation of project objectives, preliminary hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling and the evaluation of existing information and identification of data gaps.

In recommending the work plan, linkages to the Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Modelling and Biophysical Component studies are made, so that related issues can be addressed in the TOR for those studies. It is important to recognise that these studies are intended at providing the information and analyses necessary to conduct the EIA. The Socio-Economic Component Study will not include environmental effects predictions or analyses, as these will be done in Phase 3 of the EIA.

A summary of the items discussed at the Socio-economic Workshop regarding each socio-economic sub-component have been reported in the document: Summary of the Socio-Economic Workshop, June, 2003.

In recommending the work plan, linkages to other studies (Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Modelling, Socio-Economic Component Studies and Biophysical Component Studies) are made, so that linking issues can be addressed later in the development of the TOR for those studies. It is important to recognize that these studies are intended at providing the information and analyses necessary to conduct the EIA. The Biophysical Component Study will not include environmental effects predictions or analyses, as these will be done in Phase 3 of the EIA.

2.0   DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMPONENT STUDIES

2.1   Land Use and Value

2.1.1   Background

The focus of this portion of the Socio-Economic Component Study is the private and public land that is located within the potential zone of influence of the Project Options and Status Quo. As far back as the time of early European settlement in the area, the Petitcodiac River has had a major influence on the pattern of development. As the principal mode of transportation for several centuries, many of the farms, sawmills, and other sources of employment were located in close proximity to the River. In order to be close to these sources of employment, latter inhabitants clustered in settlements that were oriented to the River. In more recent history, it is largely the aesthetic appeal of the Petitcodiac River that has attracted suburban dwellers and affected development patterns.

2.1.2   Issues and Concerns

Land Use and Property Value Changes
The primary concern of property owners located upstream and downstream of the Causeway is that any potential alteration of land use could have an environmental effect on the value of their property. The potential effects of the Project Options on land use and property value could result from physical changes (e.g., from erosion or siltation), or aesthetic changes in the quality of their access and enjoyment of their property.

Changes to Agricultural Land
Most farms and farmland in the area are located in close proximity to the Petitcodiac River, upstream and downstream of the Causeway. Of concern are the potential effects the changes to the River will have on the value and use of agricultural property, and the farmland dykes, aboiteaux and access road infrastructure.

2.1.3   Project Environmental Effects

It is anticipated that the Project Options could have an environmental effect on the value of the properties in close proximity to the River. To identify the anticipated environmental effects of the Project Options on the private and public land located within the Study Area, a review of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling will be undertaken with special attention to any predicted changes in water levels, erosion, siltation, and physical appearance. The review of modelled changes associated with each Project Option will be augmented by on-site visits to any area of special concern. These changes will be included in an analysis of how they might affect the ability of land users to continue to use their land for current and planned purposes, and to determine if any changes in aesthetics or use could affect the value of property.

In order to quantify changes in residential and commercial property value from any environmental effects attributed to the Project Options, sales data will be reviewed to identify “pairs” of sales located within the Study Area. These paired sales, which ideally include both vacant and improved property, will be highly similar except that one sale property would be located on the Petitcodiac River, while the other would not. Any differential would amount to the total monetary enhancement that accrues to a waterfront property located on the Petitcodiac River. This differential will then be applied to affected waterfront property in an effort to gauge the change in value that could occur as a result of the Project Options.

Agricultural land will be similarly evaluated by comparing the unit costs of current land sales with upland agricultural land sales, and similar lands sales in Nova Scotia marshlands.

2.1.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

Past and present projects that may have overlapping effects on land use and property value are many and varied. To a large extent, current land use and zoning by-laws act cumulatively on the current land uses and property value. Cumulative environmental effects of the Project Options in combination with these will be considered by establishing the Status Quo, which in this instance is a reflection of the past and present cumulative environmental effects. Future projects, such as the new Petitcodiac River Bridge, may affect land use and value. This and other future projects that will be carried out will be considered in these analyses.

Future land development plans already in place may be affected, and as a result changed or denied.

2.1.5   Mitigation Options

In regard to the private and public land that is located within the Study Area, mitigation could result in a significant reduce the effects on the value of properties located in close proximity to the River. Mitigation can be facilitated by the on-going inclusion of special interest groups and the media in the consultation process, especially as it concerns the selection of the preferred Project Option.

The cataloguing and monitoring of the most sensitive properties within the Study Area could be undertaken once the actual work begins. The use of erosion control devices in sensitive areas could mitigate some of the environmental effects. Community enhancement initiatives (e.g., trails, access points, community projects) could also offset some potential land use and/or property value related environmental effects.

The agricultural infrastructure upgrade requirements to sustain farmlands will be examined in conjunction with the Municipal Services and Infrastructure sub-component study, as a land use and value mitigation initiative.

2.1.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Project Options
In order to determine how the proposed Project Options may affect the land use and value, the following information will be required:

• Digital mapping of the area property lines and parcel identification references. This data provides the identification of property type (vacant vs. improved), size of property and relevant owner (private vs. public) details.
• Aerial photographs of the to augment the digital mapping in identifying the type of land use in the Study Area.
• Zoning/Planning Maps of the area will be gathered from the relevant municipalities, planning districts, etc., in order to determine the existing allowable land use. This information will also provide some insight into future development within the Study Area.
• Service New Brunswick (SNB) Sales data within the area will be analyzed in order to determine a Status Quo base line. The data will also be analyzed in an effort to determine whether or not, and the extent to which property values will change within the Study Area in response to the Project Options.
• Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales data from the area will be analyzed to augment the sales data obtained from SNB. The Greater Moncton Real Estate Board compiles MLS sales data on a regular basis.
• Farm sales data of similar upland agricultural lands and Nova Scotia marshlands will be acquired from SNB, and the New Brunswick and Nova Scotia agriculture departments.

Data Sources
Data sources include:

• SNB;
• New Brunswick Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Aquaculture (NBAFA);
• Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture;
• Greater Moncton Area (GMA) municipalities;
• other municipalities and regional commissions of Study Area;
• Greater Moncton Real Estate Board;
• Hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling data;
• HDI 2003 and New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources and Energy (NBDNRE) aerial photos; and
• Contacts and referrals identified at the Socio-Economic Workshop.

2.2   Labour and Economy

2.2.1   Background

Each of the four Petitcodiac River Causeway Project Options will generate labour employment and expenditure environmental effects on the local and Provincial economies during the construction phase, as well from ensuing operations and maintenance activities. The Causeway modifications associated with each option will involve varying degrees of economic activity.

In addition, employment and economic activity creation or losses may occur in other sectors of the economy, such as tourism or commercial fishing, as a result of the environmental effects of the Project Options.

These economic changes will indirectly affect other sectors of the local and Provincial economy through the “spin-offs” of jobs and economic activity generated or loss.

2.2.2   Issues and Concerns

Effects on Jobs and the Economy
Local and provincial economies and employment will be affected by the construction activity generated by the selected Project Option. Construction benefits of the Project will be realised through the creation of employment and labour income.

Local and provincial economies may also be affected positively or negatively by changes to the physical and socio-economic environment attributed to the selected Project Option. For example, modifications to the Causeway and the changes in flow patterns of the River may provide new economic and employment opportunities in tourism, and/or it may result in losses of recreational activities.

Gains and losses in employment and economic activity will be derived not only from the direct effects, but also from the indirect “spin-offs” of jobs and employment income generated in other economic sectors.

2.2.3   Project Environmental Effects

Existing levels of employment and economic activity in the local Study area will be affected by:

• the expenditures on labour, materials and services during the construction and operation of the selected Project Option, and
• the increase, creation and/or loss of jobs and economic activity in affected economic sectors, such as tourism, fisheries, agriculture, recreation, real estate and construction, etc.

The positive economic effects of the construction activity generated by the implementation of a Project Option will benefit local area residents, provincial labour unions, the construction industry, the business community, and the provincial economy. The direct and indirect (“spin-off) benefits from employment and income generation will be estimated for the construction and operations phases of the Project Options.

The changes in flow patterns of the River associated with each of the Project Options will effect economic sectors in different ways, some positively and some negatively. Existing businesses and economic activities that are focused on the current configuration of the River or head pond may be affected negatively by the Project Options. Other existing and new businesses and economic opportunities may be enhanced by the changes attributed to the Project Options. The nature and extent of economic effects will be estimated over the operational period of the Project Options.

The direct employment and economic expenditure activities generated or lost in economic sectors affected by the Causeway Project Options will be determined in conjunction with the other socio-economic component studies. The indirect “spin-off” employment and expenditure effects of the changes per Project Option will be estimated for each affected economic sector using Statistics Canada Inverse Matrix Multipliers. This approach will not include a detailed labour market analysis, community development environmental effects assessment, or a special run of project-specific employment and expenditures using the Statistics Canada input-output model.

2.2.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

The cumulative socio-economic environmental effects of the Project Options are inherently addressed through consideration of the current economies and labour markets. Current baseline conditions are a reflection of past and present projects. Future projects that will be carried out will be captured in the direct and indirect economic sector effects analysis.

2.2.5   Mitigation Options

Because construction labour and income creation is considered a positive aspect of any of the Project Options, there will be no need to undertake mitigation. Instead, measures intended to enhance the use of local labour, materials and production inputs of each Project Option will be outlined for the construction and operations phases. Similarly, measures will be pursued to enhance any new developments and/or increased economic activities in sectors affected positively by Project Options. Where losses in economic sectors affected adversely are indicated from the other socio-economic component studies, mitigation measures will be considered.

2.2.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Causeway and Project Options
The existing labour market and economic sectors of the GMA, and the Province, will be profiled. The availability of local and/or provincial construction labour required by each option will be discussed with the New Brunswick Department of Labour and labour union representatives. New Brunswick and Moncton regional employment and unemployment statistics will be used.

Data Sources
The number and types of full and part time employees, and material and services expenditures required by the Project Options will be estimated as part of the construction and operations cost analyses. The Statistics Canada employment and expenditure input-output model multipliers for New Brunswick (i.e., the inverse matrix) will provide the extent of labour and labour income spin-offs generated. Types of labour spin-offs will be identified through discussions with labour officials.

The potential direct job and expenditure activity gains and losses associated with the other components of the environment will be acquired through consultations with the other Socio-economic and Bio-physical Component Study Team members.

2.3   Municipal Services and Infrastructure¹

2.3.1   Background

The environmental effects on municipal services and infrastructure for each of the Project Options is addressed in this sub-component. The environmental effects on the road system are dealt with in the Transportation Network sub-component of the environment.

There are numerous infrastructure components along the Petitcodiac River. The infrastructure components currently serve residents of the municipalities and local service districts located along the banks of the Petitcodiac River. The types of infrastructure include:

• water supply conduits;
• sanitary sewer;
• storm sewer;
• drainage works;
• culverts;
• pipelines;
• dykeland infrastructure (and associated farm land);
• landfills; and
• other public infrastructure (hydro and telephone lines, cable TV lines, and River crossing structures).

¹Note that Municipal Services and Infrastructure includes all private and public infrastructure, and underground water and wastewater services.

2.3.2   Issues and Concerns

Continued Functionality and Effectiveness of Municipal Services and Infrastructure
The key issues or concerns associated with the environmental effects of the Project Options on riverside infrastructure located both upstream and downstream of the current Causeway are erosion (river scouring), sedimentation along the banks of the River and the riverbed, and increased flooding. Erosion is a concern as it may expose and/or undermine existing infrastructures such as outfalls, buried pipes or cables. Sedimentation is a concern as it may block or inhibit the functioning of existing infrastructure, infilling ditches and blocking outfalls, for example. Flooding is a concern as it may cause damage to existing Infrastructure and/or private property connected to the infrastructure.

The key issues or concerns associated with municipal services relates primarily to any temporary interference that the Project Options that may have on the water and wastewater services operation and the ability of emergency services (e.g., fire, police, ambulance) during their construction and operation. Further, any Project Option induced demand on municipal services (e.g., due to increases in river related human activity) would be of concern.

2.3.3   Project Environmental Effects

The anticipated socio-economic environmental effects of the Project Options and the Status Quo can be divided into two distinct sections as follows:

1. Environmental effects resulting from construction activities: these environmental effects would be experienced as a direct result of the construction activities of each Project Option. These could include:
   • At present there is a 900 mm diameter watermain crossing the Causeway. Construction problems associated with this watermain could include temporary loss of or a reduction of potable water, discolored potable water.
   • Costs associated with changing the existing infrastructure to permit construction activities required to implement each Project Option.
2. Environmental effects resulting from activities other than construction: these environmental effects would be a result of river changes experienced with the different Project Options and/or the Status Quo, these environmental effects would likely be due to erosion (river scouring), sedimentation or flooding. An example of the type of environmental effect that may be identified is:
   • Cost of maintaining ditches: these costs could decrease as a result of erosion at some ditch outfalls into the River, however they could also increase as s result of sediment deposits.

In conjunction with the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling, the areas of the River subject to erosion and sedimentation will be identified. The environmental effects on Infrastructure caused by each Project Option with regards to erosion and/or sedimentation, will then be identified and analyzed. For example, for each Project Option, the costs for maintenance of ditches and outfall structures would be analyzed and compared to the Status Quo.

The possibility of having to provide structures protection for the existing Causeway structure, the new Petitcodiac Bridge being constructed at Gunningsville, and the structures constructed in the Project Options resulting from any change in flow, siltation and/or erosion will also be evaluated.

As the description of the Project Options is developed and the environmental effects of these are determined, especially related to the flow of traffic, the effects of the Project Options on emergency services will be evaluated. Also, where future changes in land use and businesses related to the Project Options are identified, environmental effects on municipal services will be evaluated.

2.3.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

The description of existing municipal services and infrastructure will establish the cumulative environmental effects of past and present projects that have overlapping environmental effects with those of the Project Options. Future projects that may have overlapping effects on municipal services and infrastructure will also be identified.

2.3.5   Mitigation Options

For each Project Option and the Status Quo, the environmental effects on Infrastructure may be reduced with the use of mitigation measures. Potential mitigation measures are:

• for erosion areas, outfall or pipe protection with rip-rap;
• for sedimentation areas, extension of pipes and/or culverts or replacement of ditches with pipes; and
• for areas prone to flooding, upgrading and raising the top of manholes to above flood elevations.

Mitigation of municipal services may include measures to limit or avoid underground services disruptions, and planning for emergency services that are adversely affected by the construction or operation of the Project Options.

2.3.6   Information Requirements

Environmental effects of the Project Options
The identification of the environmental effects of the Project Options on infrastructure will be dependent upon the ability to acquire sufficient information to identify all known existing infrastructure components.

All existing information available from the municipalities, provincial and or federal government agencies, crown corporations, and all other public and private sources, will be acquired to assess the environmental effects on all known existing infrastructure.

All data will be collected and verified, and the availability and quality of data for existing infrastructure will be assessed. This will involve the initial contact with these authorities to verify the availability of data and follow-up consultations to confirm the information and the potential environmental effects.

A questionnaire will be developed to identify the existence of infrastructure such as water supply conduits, drainage works, culverts, pipelines, dykeland infrastructure (and associated farm land), landfills, and other public infrastructure (hydro and telephone lines). All record drawings, zoning maps, GIS information, aerial photography, existing survey pick up, field observation, maintenance and operating expenses and schedules, current emission and effluent volumes and characteristics which may be available for infrastructure located along the Petitcodiac River and its affected tributaries will be requested.

Once all existing infrastructure components have been identified, they will be catalogued and assessed for application in the environmental effects analysis. At this point any remaining data gaps will be identified, and the means to fill the voids explored.

The AMEC Team will consult with municipalities, health services and community services institutions to determine the status of existing municipal services that may be affected by the Project Options. Focus will be on emergency services due to the potential impediment of traffic flow during construction or operational maintenance.

Data Sources
Data sources include:

• SNB
• New Brunswick Department of Transportation (NBDOT)
• GMA municipalities
• other municipalities and Greater Moncton Planning District Commission
• NB Tel
• NB Power
• Hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling data
• HDI 2003 and DNRE aerial photos
• Contacts and referrals identified at the Socio-Economic Workshop.

2.4   Transportation Network

2.4.1   Background

The Petitcodiac River Causeway is an integral component of the GMA transportation network. The Town of Riverview has experienced considerable population growth since its completion. The Causeway provides a four-lane roadway connection between Moncton (Route 15 - Wheeler Blvd and Route 106 - Salisbury Road and Main Street) and Riverview (Route 112 - Coverdale Road and Route 114 - Hillsborough Road) and carries up to 30,000 vehicles and trucks per day. The alternate river crossing in the GMA at this time is the existing two-lane Gunningsville Bridge, which presently is operating near capacity. The Gunningsville Bridge is scheduled for demolition and replacement with a new four-lane bridge in the next few years.

2.4.2   Issues and Concerns

Changes in Traffic Patterns
The key issue regarding the Transportation Network component of the environment is the potential traffic disruption during the construction phase of the two Project Options that entail modifications to the Causeway (i.e., the option to replace the fishway and the option to replace part of the Causeway with a bridge). The alternate route across the River via the existing Gunningsville Bridge will not be sufficient to handle the additional vehicle and truck traffic diverted from the Causeway. Considerable traffic congestion and delays may be experienced, especially along Hillsborough Road and in the downtown area of Moncton. Traffic delays or constriction may occur as a result of annual maintenance activities of the Project Options and the Status Quo.

2.4.3   Project Environmental Effects

The continued use of the Causeway as it is at present (Status Quo), and the two Project Options that involve changes only to the operation of the Causeway fish gate, will not affect the transportation network. However, the Project Options that entail the replacement of segments of the Causeway with a new fishway or a new bridge will result in the temporary loss of River crossing capacity, and would necessitate the use of traffic detours during the construction phase. Operation of each Project Option may involve maintenance or operational activities that could affect the flow of traffic.

During the construction phase, traffic may have to be rerouted to the planned new four-lane Petitcodiac River Bridge at Gunningsville and/or upriver to Salisbury to cross the River. This will increase traffic congestion and noise, as well as travel and vehicle operations time. Increased traffic along detour routes could lead to increases in vehicular accidents. Alternatively, the traffic could be retained along the Causeway routes through the construction of a temporary diversion structure, if found to be feasible.

The spatial boundary of the road transportation network will be determined to encompass the potential traffic environmental effects area of the Project Options. This would include the alternate routes for travel between Riverview and Moncton. The temporal boundary will be limited to the construction phase of the project, as it is anticipated that upon completion of the Causeway reconstruction, traffic will return to the prior normal operating conditions. Temporal boundaries may include maintenance periods where traffic flow is potentially affected.

Environmental effects on the road transportation network include the decline in traffic level-of-service, as well as the extent of potential highway safety, of the increased traffic generated and rerouted during the construction. In addition, environmental effects include the potential road infrastructure deterioration from additional truck traffic generated during construction. Medical and emergency services could also be affected during the construction period.

The GMA traffic model will be used to simulate temporary traffic conditions during the construction phase of the Project Options involving installation of a new fishway or a bridge segment to the Causeway. The rerouted traffic will be compared to the existing traffic conditions to estimate the changes in traffic volumes, extent of travel delays and potential increase in vehicle accidents along the detour routes during construction.

Once the selected Project Option is implemented, normal traffic conditions will return without any notable traffic network environmental effects.

2.4.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

Historically, the Causeway was a major addition to the GMA transportation network. Considerable residential growth in Riverview followed completion of the Causeway, which supplemented the cross-river highway capacity previously provided only by the Gunningsville Bridge. The past environmental effects since constructing the Causeway will be documented with respect to present traffic and population patterns in comparison with the pre-Causeway situation. This will characterise the cumulative environmental effects of past and present projects that will have overlapping environmental effects with those of the Project Options.

The NBDOT presently has plans and is committed to replacing the existing two-lane Gunningsville Bridge with a new four-lane bridge at approximately the same location. Depending on the timing of the implementation of either of the two Project Options that entail modifications to the Causeway, the new Petitcodiac River Bridge could become an integral part of the traffic diversion plans during the construction phase. NBDOT will be consulted to confirm their plans, schedule and progress.

The potential for other projects that will be carried out in the future that may affect the transportation network will also be identified and evaluated. Traffic induced by changes brought on by the Project Options (e.g., due to increased tourism or special events) will be assessed.

2.4.5   Mitigation Options

Mitigation in the context of the transportation network will be accomplished during the construction phase of the two Project Options that entail modifications to the Causeway through various traffic control measures. Traffic control measures may include alternate detour routings, installation of temporary traffic signals, signage, recommended staggered work hours, construction of a temporary diversion structure alongside the Causeway, etc. NBDOT and the GMA Municipalities will be consulted to discuss potential temporary construction phase traffic plans.

Completion of a new Petitcodiac River Bridge in time to accommodate the diverted traffic during the construction phase of the Project Options would also provide a measure of mitigation.

2.4.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Causeway
Baseline GMA traffic volumes and vehicle accident data will be documented for the present traffic conditions. These data will be acquired from NBDOT and the GMA Municipalities, as available.

Environmental Effects of the Project Options
To simulate the temporary traffic conditions of the rerouted traffic during the construction phase in comparison to the existing traffic conditions, permission to use the GMA QRS II traffic model will be acquired from NBDOT and the GMA Municipalities. The model parameters will need to be updated and the street network “cut out” and extended to include Coverdale Road and Salisbury Road to where they meet in Salisbury to focus on the Study Area. Traffic volumes, extent of travel delays and potential increase in vehicle accidents along the detour routes during construction will be estimated using this traffic model.

Data Sources
In order to complete this work, the Provincial plans and construction schedule for new Petitcodiac River Bridge will need to be confirmed with NBDOT. In addition, street upgrade plans and schedule on either side of the new Bridge will be required to simulate the environmental effect of traffic diversion during the construction phase of the two Project Options that entail modifications to the Causeway.

The net time, vehicle operations and accident costs will be estimated using the Transport Canada MicroBENCOST analysis model, or like methodology, and Provincial input cost parameters.

Residual Data Requirements
As it is understood that no explicit plans or a schedule are set at this time, this may require discussion with the City of Moncton, Town of Riverview and NBDOT. Future plans for infrastructure associated with the new Petitcodiac River Bridge will be considered (e.g., approach lanes and connecting streets). Traffic count field survey data may have to be collected for the immediate Study Area, if gaps in the traffic data for the affected area street network are found.

2.5   Vessel Traffic and Navigation

2.5.1   Background

The Causeway poses a barrier to vessel navigation and has also resulted in major changes to the River, both upstream and downstream. Vessel use on the River has also been affected by changes in technology, transportation requirements, the economy, demographics and recreational interests. The assessment of this component of the environment will need to examine both the physical changes in terms of vessel navigation as well as the resulting socio-economic environmental effects on transportation, fishing, tourism, and recreation.

2.5.2   Issues and Concerns

Changes in Navigational Opportunities
The construction of the Causeway established a head pond that provides a range of recreational boating opportunities such as swimming, sailing, canoeing windsurfing, snowmobiling, dog sled races and skating. However, these recreation opportunities are being adversely affected by siltation and changing water levels.

Navigation below the Causeway has been adversely affected by the siltation. Navigation, for most vessels is limited to the far field. This compares to pre-Causeway conditions where navigation, at high tide, was possible well beyond Moncton.

Moncton, Salisbury and other communities were once very reliant on marine transportation, including boat building. However, developments of road, rail and air transportation have had dramatic changes on marine transportation in New Brunswick. By the time the Causeway was constructed there was no major freight transportation or boat building on the River.

Since the construction of the Causeway, there has been a major expansion in recreational boating and fishing activity in the Province. The reduced navigation capabilities of the River, including the Causeway, have likely affected the potential for recreational boating use of the River.

Thus, this component study will need to identify the environmental effects on the navigation capabilities (above and below the Causeway) of the Causeway, the Project Options and the cumulative environmental effects of other Projects including the Status Quo.

Changes in Vessel Traffic
Furthermore, this component will need to examine the environmental effects on vessel traffic by examining current commercial and recreational boating activity in the Province. This will be used to project vessel traffic if the Causeway was not constructed and for each Project Option. Commercial vessel traffic, such as freight and boat building was no longer present at the time of the Causeway construction. However, other vessel traffic may have developed such as tourism and recreation related boating.

2.5.3   Project Environmental Effects

The hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling work will provide an indication of river flows, width and depth of each Project Option. These will determine the environmental effects on navigation and vessel traffic on the River. The environmental effects of the Causeway will be determined by documenting navigation capabilities and vessel traffic prior to the Causeway construction, projecting what current navigation and vessel traffic would be today without the Causeway and comparing the two situations.

2.5.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

The cumulative environmental effects of each Project Option will be estimated by adding the environmental effects of the Causeway and the Option and comparing them to the pre-Causeway situation. The principal cumulative environmental effect of past projects is likely to have been the Status Quo. Understanding how the Status Quo has contributed to cumulative environmental effects on navigation will be important.

2.5.5   Mitigation Options

When the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling has determined the expected environmental effects on the navigation capabilities, potential mitigation options will be identified and assessed in terms of their environmental effect on both navigational capabilities and vessel traffic.

2.5.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Causeway
The general information requirements for this component of the environment are:

• Inventory of recreational boating and commercial vessel activities and traffic along River - baseline and pre-1967;
• Modelled waterline footprint of Project Options; and
• Trends in commercial and recreational boating in New Brunswick (reports, statistics available from NBAFA, New Brunswick Tourism and Parks (NBTAP), Tourism and recreational organizations).

The pre-Causeway situation will be determined through reports and statistics available from Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) (Canadian Coast Guard), NBAFA and municipal records. A number of interviews will also be conducted with individuals that were involved in commercial and recreational boating on the River prior to the Causeway and since.

The current navigational capabilities and vessel traffic will be established through similar sources, including interviews. Current nautical charts and other navigational information will also be reviewed. Trends on both commercial and recreational vessel uses for New Brunswick will be examined to develop estimates of the environmental effects of the Causeway on vessel traffic.

The difference between the current vessel traffic and the projected traffic (without the Causeway) will be used to determine the environmental effects on this component of the environment.

Environmental Effects of the Project Options
The same process will be used to examine the environmental effects of the Project Options. The starting point for this analysis will be the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling results in terms of the environmental effects of the Project Options on navigation capabilities above and below the Causeway location.

The levels, uses and types of vessel traffic will be documented. Current and former (pre-1967) levels of commercial vessel traffic data and navigation channels will be acquired for segments of the River below and above the Causeway, as available.

Information on the potential environmental effects of the Causeway modification options on vessel traffic and navigation, and other related commercial activity will be discussed to establish what stakeholders perceive to be the nature and extent of environmental effects on their industries and activities.

Data Sources
Information regarding the existing traffic and navigational capabilities of the River will be sought from various sources. Data sources include Fisheries and Oceans – Small Craft Harbours, local area boat clubs, the Provincial Departments of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Supply and Services, Business New Brunswick (BNB), and SNB, and Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA), etc. In addition various reports on recreational boating will be reviewed to establish who and where the existing boaters are along the River.

It is expected that major information sources will be identified through referrals and contacts provided by:

• various federal, provincial and municipal government departments and agencies; and
• the Socio-Economic Workshop participants.

The results of the other component studies will also be major information sources including, commercial fishery, recreation and tourism.

2.6   Archaeology and Heritage Resources

2.6.1   Background

Archaeological and heritage resources (pre-European contact or post-European contact sites, structures, features and artifacts) are known to have existed along the banks of the Petitcodiac River and its tributaries, within the near, mid, and far field areas. The Archaeological Services Unit (ASU) and the Planning and Commemoration Section, Heritage Branch, of the Culture and Sport Secretariat are the agencies responsible for the identification, preservation, protection, and development of archaeological and heritage resources within New Brunswick.

Project Options may cause changes to the environment, which could potentially affect archaeological and heritage resources. The requirement to consider archaeological and heritage resources is linked to the to the EIA process through Regulation 87-83 of the Clean Environment Act. Archaeological and heritage resources are considered to be non-renewable resources, and potential environmental effects resulting from Project Options must be considered.

2.6.2   Issues and Concerns

Changes to Archaeological and Heritage Resources
The issues and concerns are as follows:

• Changes to the flow patterns of the River may alter water levels and thus change patterns of sediment movement, erosion and deposition in the River and associated heritage and archaeological resources.
• Raising and lowering of water levels in the Petitcodiac River and head pond (through natural forces such as storm surges and tidal influences, and un-natural factors such as the Causeway), could result in the submergence or re-emergence of archaeological and heritage resources.
• Cumulative environmental effects of other Projects could further affect archaeological and heritage resources (i.e., new bridge, industrial and non-industrial development, flooding, and mitigative measures for existing infrastructure).

Project environmental effects on archaeological and heritage resources are expected to be concentrated within the near field area, with some potential for extension into the mid- and far field areas.

2.6.3   Project Environmental Effects

Environmental Effects of the Causeway
With respect to archaeological and heritage resources, any activity associated with the Project Options that compromises the integrity (authenticity and physical condition) of the resource is considered to be an adverse environmental effect. The level of environmental effect on archaeological and heritage resources is dependent on a number of factors. They include the magnitude, severity, duration, range, frequency, diversity, cumulative environmental effect, and rate of change of the environmental effect on the resource in question, as well as the significance of the resource within the provincial record.

Maintaining the Status Quo may result in the continued deposition of sediments along the shoreline of the River. If these areas become stable over the long-term, it could result in increasing shoreline development, which may mean the disturbance of “original” shoreline areas that have a high potential to contain heritage resources. It is likely that construction of the Causeway resulted in the submergence of archaeological and heritage resources along the banks of the Petitcodiac River upstream of the Causeway, thus removing the potential for these sites to contribute to the shared heritage of all New Brunswickers.

Environmental Effects of the Project Options Changes to archaeological and heritage resources could potentially occur during each of the Project Options.

During construction, operations, maintenance and decommissioning activities, there could potentially be changes to the current and past shorelines both down and upstream of the current Causeway facility (to varying degrees).

In addition, the potential environmental effects of the Project Options that result in the lowering of water levels in the head pond, listed below, could result in the exposure of archaeological sites which had been previously “protected” by vegetation.

Opening the gates or installing a bridge will alter the present flow regime of the Petitcodiac River, potentially causing erosion of the riverbank, soil deposition, and the raising and lower of water levels, which could potentially affect archaeological and heritage resources. There may also be additional environmental effects to archaeological and heritage resources caused by construction activities associated with a bridge.

In order to identify the anticipated Project Options environmental effects on archaeological and heritage resources, it will be necessary to identify the location of known archaeological and heritage resources within the potential zones of influence of the Project Options. A predictive modelling exercise to identify locations that exhibit an elevated potential for the recovery of previously unknown archaeology and heritage resources within the Potential zones of influence of the Project Options, will be undertaken. Once complete, the locations of known resources and elevated potential areas may be overlaid with results of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling (for each Project Option) to identify locations of possible interaction. This evaluation will be based on the preliminary results of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling.

2.6.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where Project Options environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects.

The resultant environmental effects of the Project Options on archaeological and heritage resources may overlap with those of past projects, in that undoubtedly some of these resources have been lost as a result of past development and construction activities in the Moncton area. As a result of new federal and provincial legislation (e.g., the New Brunswick Environmental Impact Assessment process, Canadian Environmental Assessment Act), there is likely to be less environmental effect. These legislation seek to assess the potential environmental effects that present and future developments have on these resources, and by extension, require the implementation of mitigative measures.

2.6.5   Mitigation Options

Mitigative measures employed for archaeological and heritage resources largely depend on the significance of the resource to be affected, its location in relation to the Project Option activities being undertaken, and the severity of the potential environmental effect. Input from Archaeological Services Unit (ASU) and the Heritage Branch is key to the development of effective mitigative measures.

Mitigation for archaeological and heritage resources can take a variety of forms, which may include, but are not limited to:

• awareness training;
• changes in Project Option design (avoidance);
• site protection (capping, stabilization, barriers, signage, etc.);
• site investigation and data recovery (survey, and excavation); and
• construction and post-construction monitoring (including protocol development).

From a regulatory point-of-view, avoidance is always the preferred mitigation option.

It will be necessary to develop Project Options and site-specific mitigation measures once a preliminary heritage evaluation has been undertaken, and known and potential resources have been identified.

2.6.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Causeway
Information and data are needed to characterize the state of the resource in the area of potential influence of the Project Options. This will be accomplished through a Preliminary Heritage Resource Evaluation, which will include:

• Review of provincial databases maintained by the Heritage Branch (including the Archaeological Site File, the Borden Map File, The Heritage Place Register, The Canadian Register of Historic Buildings, the Archaeological Projects Manuscripts File, and the Private Collections File).
• Review of historical mapping and archival information maintained by the New Brunswick Provincial Archives, and the Centre d’Etudes Acadiennes (Universite de Moncton).
• Review of published and un-published reports of archaeological and heritage investigations.
• Review of information from published and un-published sources on local and regional history.
• Review of shipwreck inventories.
• Review of topographic and geological mapping, and aerial photography to identify cultural and historical characteristics, which are commonly associated with archaeological and heritage sites in the region (predictive modelling).
• Direct consultation with regulators (ASU and the Heritage Branch), Stakeholders (local historical societies, and the New Brunswick Museum), and individuals with knowledge of Project areas history, archaeology, and geology (i.e., professional and amateur historians, archaeologists, and geologists).
• Direct consultation with First Nation groups (Fort Folly First Nation, UNBI, MAWIW, Aboriginal Peoples Council)
• Preliminary Field Examination of the Project area to assess the current condition of a sample of the known resources in the area, and to confirm results of the archaeological predictive modelling exercise.

Residual Data Requirements
To fill data gaps associated with archaeological and heritage resource, it may be necessary to determine the location of as-yet, unknown archaeological and heritage resources. This would be accomplished through a combination of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling, and the archaeological and heritage resource predictive modelling process.

Locations where the “original” shoreline could be affected by erosion, and deposition, as a result of the Project Options and Status Quo, will be subject to the archaeological modelling exercise. Unless there is zero potential (due to extreme ground disturbance, for example), then confirmatory fieldwork will be undertaken at locations using standard archaeological techniques.

The scope of work required to fill the residual data requirements will be somewhat dependent on the results of the hydrodynamic and sediment transportation modelling. However, it is anticipated that all locations with known resources and areas exhibiting high archaeological potential, as well as, a representative sample of medium and low potential areas that may be affected by any of the Project Options will be subjected to a preliminary surficial survey.

Heritage resources encountered during the preliminary survey will be evaluated and assessed for significance. The intent of the preliminary survey will be to determine the location and extent of the archaeological and heritage sites, identify the potential environmental effects of each option, and determine what mitigation is required.

If required, a detailed evaluation may be recommended if existing, or potential archaeological and heritage resources are identified and Project Option environmental effects are unavoidable.

Pre-fieldwork studies (document review) will be completed in spring 2003.

Environmental Effects of the Project Options
Once an archaeological/historical profile of the Project area has been developed, it will be necessary to compare known and potential resource locations with results of the modelling (i.e., hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling (for each option)) to identify locations of possible interaction.

Mitigation Options
Potential mitigation measures as identified above (see Mitigation) are designed with input from relevant regulators (ASU and the Heritage Branch), the public, stakeholders, and First Nations, where appropriate. As such, the mitigation implemented to minimize the environmental effects of the Project Options are tailored to each Option, reducing potential environmental effects to the resource or the loss of data, if the resource is to be affected.

In general, it is likely that the Heritage Resource Evaluation of the Project Options will contribute to the archaeological and heritage knowledge base of the study area through the development of an archaeological and historical profile of the area, and the identification of previously unknown archaeological and heritage resources and areas exhibiting an elevated potential for the recovery of additional resources. With the development of proper mitigation measures, it is unlikely that the Project Options will result in significant adverse environmental effects to archaeological and heritage resources. However, if archaeological and heritage resources are to be affected by the Project Options, it may be possible in some situations to offset the loss through compensation-in-kind. For heritage resources, this includes a wide variety of potential public-oriented heritage programs (i.e., investigative projects, site conservation, site commemoration, etc.). Due to the unique nature of some components of these resources (e.g., pre-contact archaeological sites), there will likely need to be a graded compensation evaluation and compensation may not always be appropriate or possible.

It should be noted that compensation is the last resort, and can only be considered once all potential mitigative options have been exhausted.

Data Sources
Potential data sources include the following:

• Heritage Branch;
• New Brunswick Provincial Archives;
• Universite de Moncton Centre d’Etudes Acadiennes;
• ASU;
• New Brunswick Museum;
• First Nations consultations;
• Hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling; and
• Stakeholders and referrals.

2.7   Tourism

2.7.1   Background

Tourism is big business in New Brunswick. Total tourism expenditures in the province reached $1.2 billion in 2002, making it the most successful year in the province’s tourism history. The economic environmental effect of this sector is significant, maintaining an estimated 33,000 person years of employment and generating $295 million in tax revenues ($162 million in federal taxes; $89 million in provincial taxes and $44 million in municipal receipts). A record 2 million people visited the province in 2002. The largest share, 26%, was from the Maritime Region, followed by the U.S. with 24% and Ontario and Quebec with 23% and 22% respectively. Annual occupancy rate for accommodations averaged 56% for 2002, climbing to 80.5% for the peak months of July and August. Room sale revenues increased 12.4% over 2001 to more than $160 million. Attendance at attractions varied across the province with combined attendance at leading provincially or federally supported attractions totalling over 1 million visitors for the peak season of May to October, an increase of nearly 7% over 2001.

The Petitcodiac River, head pond and shore areas have and continue to provide major tourism opportunities for non-resident and resident visitors. The Causeway has resulted in major physical changes creating both positive and adverse environmental effects on local and regional tourism activities. Implementation of the Project Option(s) may result in physical changes to the river system (including head pond) and biophysical changes to habitat and characteristics (migration patterns) for important tourism related species (birding, wildlife observation, angling, etc.), which may affect tourism opportunities. This component study will examine the environmental effects of the Project Option(s) in terms of historical, current and potential future tourism activities and interests.

2.7.2   Key Issues and Concerns

Potential Effects on Existing Tourism Opportunities
The existing head pond offers tourism activities related to outdoor adventure and recreation (motorized and non-motorized boating, nature interpretation, fishing, and sailing). Changes to the head pond due to Project Options may affect these activities. The current configuration of the River also provides habitat in easily accessible areas for various flora and fauna, which have tourism potential. Currently, there are a number of tourism attractions in the Moncton region and Fundy Region that could be directly or indirectly affected by the Project Options. Tourism attractions are listed in Table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1 Moncton Region - Tourism Attractions
Location	Type	Attraction
Dieppe	General	Crystal Palace Amusement Park
Moncton	General	Magic Mountain Water Theme Park
Moncton	General	Magnetic Hill
Moncton	General	Musée Acadien (UdeM)
Alma	General	Fundy National Park
Harvey	General	Cape Enrage
Hopewell	General	The Hopewell Rocks
Petitcodiac	Market	Petitcodiac Farmers Market
Petitcodiac	Festival	Westmorland County Agricultural Fair
Salisbury	Historic Covered Bridge	Petitcodiac River No. 3 (Hasty)
Alma	Sea Kayaking	Fresh Air Adventure Ltd.
Harvey (Albert County)	Historic Lighthouse	Anderson Hollow
Riverside-Albert	Cultural Community	The Fundy Historic Village
Riverside-Albert	Historic Site	Riverside Consolidated School
Riverside-Albert	Museum	The Old Bank Museum
Riverside-Albert	Horseback Riding	Broadleaf Guest Ranch
Hopewell Cape	Sea Kayaking	Baymount Outdoor Adventures Inc.
Hopewell Cape	Museum	Albert County Museum
Hillsborough	Caving	Baymount Outdoor Adventures Inc.
Hillsborough	Railroad Tours	Salem and Hillsborough Railroad Inc.
Hillsborough	Museum	Salem and Hillsborough Railroad Inc.
Hillsborough	Farmer’s Market	Hillsborough Market
Riverview	Park	Riverside Park
Moncton	Swimming	Kiwanis Centennial Beach
Moncton	Farmer’s Market	Moncton Farmer’s Market
Moncton	Festival	Atlantic Seafood Festival
Moncton	Festival	Festival International du cinema francophone en Acadie
Moncton	Heritage Site	Free Meeting House
Moncton	Heritage Site	Lutz Mountain Heritage Museum
Moncton	Museum	Moncton Museum
Moncton	Museum	Musée acadien
Moncton	Heritage Site	The Thomas Williams House
Moncton	Attraction	Tidal Bore
Dieppe	Festival	Dieppe International Kite Festival
Dieppe	Historic Site	Monument Lefebvre National Historic Site
Dieppe	Heritage Site	Chapelle de Beaumont
Dorchester	Museum	Keillor House and Coach House Museum
Dorchester	Heritage Site	Bell Inn Provincial Historic Site
Dorchester	Historic Site	The Rocklynn (Chandler House)
Dorchester	Festival	Sandpiper Festival
Dorchester	Festival	Shiretown Days Festival

New and/or Enhanced Tourism Opportunities
The Causeway has affected sport fishing, boating, general aesthetics of the River, headpond, riverbanks and tidal action. Changes to the River due to Project Option(s) may positively or adversely affect tourism activities and opportunities (birding, outfitting, day adventure centres, riverfront sites, attractions and linear trails, etc.).

Non-Resident and Resident Visitor Tourism Interests and Preference
Tourism activities and interests are constantly changing due to demographics, education, technology and other factors. The tourism opportunities associated with the pre-Causeway conditions, current conditions and the Project Options will be examined in light of the current and emerging tourism trends. The Canadian Tourism Commission and the NBTAP has identified several important emerging tourism trends.

2.7.3   Project Environmental Effects

Environmental effects of the Causeway
Documentation of tourism activities in the Region prior to Causeway construction is scant. Prior to 1968, there was no provincial department designated with tourism responsibilities. Thus, anticipated information sources will be mainly anecdotal and based on personal interviews with local operators and key informants in the private and government sectors. Current tourism activities will be documented through existing reports, such as the Scenic Drive Consumer Profiles and Regional Tourism Development Strategies, supplemented by interviews with relevant municipal, provincial and tourism organizations and operators. There is limited detailed data available at the regional level – a proper auto exit survey has not been conducted in the province since the late nineteen-eighties. Thus, comparisons of the before and current tourism situations will be difficult and will be largely qualitative. Evolving tourism needs and interests will be determined through a review of site-specific feasibility studies, roofed accommodation and campground occupancy reports, literature and Internet searches, and interviews with the relevant Community Economic Development Agencies - Enterprise Moncton and Enterprise Southeast.

Environmental Effects of Project Options
The Project Options will be assessed as to their environmental effect on the head pond, River, tidal action and shoreline in terms of enhancing or detracting from tourism opportunities. Short term and long-term environmental effects on tourism activity levels will be estimated for each Project Option based on current activity, local and provincial tourism trends, local, regional and provincial plans and strategies.

Since 1968, there have been significant changes in demographics, technology, values and interests in the tourism sector. Consequently, there are associated major changes in how the Study Area is or would have been used for tourism.

2.7.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

The cumulative environmental effects of each Project Option combined with other projects in the region will be examined. The process will entail overlaying the tourism related environmental effects of the other projects with the potential tourism environmental effects of the Petitcodiac River Causeway Project Options, and determining whether there would be a positive synergistic environmental effect or an adverse conflicting environmental effect.

2.7.5   Mitigation Options

The anticipated tourism environmental effects will be enhanced (positive environmental effects) or reduced/eliminated (adverse environmental effects) through the identification of optimization and mitigation measures. Mitigation options could include introduction/enhancement of tourism opportunities in other locations or improving access or use of unaffected tourism opportunities within the Study Area.

2.7.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Causeway Current and pre-Causeway tourism opportunities and levels of activity will be documented, including:

• current and historical tourism reports and statistics;
• interviews with municipal, Community Economic Development Agency (CEDA), provincial and private tourism operators and organizations;
• reports on trends in tourism interests and needs;
• Study Area public, stakeholder, and aboriginal community surveys on tourism needs and interests;
• referrals and contacts provided by government departments; and
• referrals and contacts provided at the Socio-Economic Workshop.

Key stakeholders will be interviewed to attempt to characterise pre-Causeway tourism, especially activities such as fishing in the headwaters, discontinued festivals, and tourism-related recreational activities.

Environmental Effects of Project Options
Documentation of current tourism opportunities and level of activity along with projections for the future for each Project Option including:

• environmental effect of Project Options on the head pond, River and shorelines;
• current tourism reports and statistics;
• current plans and strategies;
• interviews with municipal, CEDA, provincial and private tourism operators and organizations;
• reports on trends in tourism interests and needs;
• Study Area public, stakeholder, and aboriginal community surveys on tourism needs and interests;
• referrals and contacts provided by government departments; and
• referrals and contacts provided at the Socio-Economic Workshop.

Mitigation Options
Documentation of current tourism opportunities and level of activity along with estimates for the future for each Project Option and mitigation measure including:

• environmental effect of Project Options on the head pond, River and shorelines;
• environmental effect of tourism mitigation measures on the head pond, River and shorelines;
• current tourism reports and statistics;
• interviews with municipal, CEDA, provincial and private tourism operators and organizations;
• reports on trends in tourism interests and needs;
• Study Area public, stakeholder, and aboriginal community surveys on tourism needs and interests;
• referrals and contacts provided by government departments; and
• referrals and contacts provided by the Socio-Economic Workshop.

Data Sources
Inventory of tourism activities along River and shoreline - baseline and pre-1967. (New Brunswick Department of Environment and Local Government (NBDELG), NBTAP, NBDNRE, New Brunswick Department of Culture and Sport Secretariat (NBCSS), BNB).

Tourism visitation and activities statistics within region (NBTAP, BNB, CEDA).

Relevant tourism and demographic data from Statistics Canada, Canadian Tourism Commission, World Tourism Organization.

Interviews with key informants about pre-Causeway tourism and recreational activities, especially in the headwaters.

2.8   Recreation

2.8.1   Background

The Petitcodiac River, head pond and shore areas have and continue to provide major recreation opportunities for residents and visitors. The Causeway has resulted in major physical changes resulting in both positive and adverse environmental effects on marine and shore based recreation. The Project Options are intended to reverse some of the environmental effects of the Causeway, which may further affect the recreation opportunities. This component study will need to examine the physical environmental effects of the Causeway and the Project Options in terms of historical and current recreational activities and interests.

2.8.2   Key Issues and Concerns

Changes to Existing Recreation Opportunities
The Causeway created a head pond that has affected recreational opportunities of the area. Swimming, sailing and other boating, canoeing, sport fishing, windsurfing, snowmobiling, dog sled races and skating are among recreational activities that have changed, or become available, since construction of the Causeway. The Project Options will have an environmental effect on these and possibly other recreation activities and opportunities.

Community and Visitor Recreational Interests and Preference
Recreation activities and interests are constantly changing due to demographics, education, technology and other factors. The recreation opportunities associated with the pre-Causeway conditions, current conditions and the Project Options will need to be examined in light of the current and emerging recreational interests and preferences.

2.8.3   Project Environmental Effects

Environmental Effects of the Causeway The first task will be the documentation of the recreational activities along River prior to Causeway construction. The anticipated information sources will be various municipal and provincial reports, photographs and personal interviews with key informants, especially in the headwaters, above the Causeway. The current recreational activities will then be documented through existing reports and data supplemented by interviews with municipal, provincial and recreation organizations. A comparison of the before and current recreation situations will identify the changes in recreational opportunities and levels of activity. The final task will be to assess the changing recreational needs and interests through a review of local recreation reports and plans, literature search and interviews with municipal and provincial recreation officials as well as a review of demographic information.

Environmental Effects of Project Options The Project Options will be assessed as to their environmental effect on the head pond, River, tidal action and shoreline in terms of enhancing or detracting from recreational opportunities. Short term and long-term environmental effects on recreational activity levels will be estimated for each alternative based on current activity, trends in recreation activities, expected changes in recreational opportunities, regional recreation plans and strategies.

2.8.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

Each alternative will be examined in terms of the cumulative environmental effects of the Project Options and the Causeway. The process will entail combining the Causeway and Project Option environmental effects in terms of recreational opportunities along with the assessment of the changing recreational interests and requirements.

The changes in recreational interests and requirements are significant since 1968. Changing demographics, technology, values and interests have resulted in major changes in how the Study Area is or would have been used for recreation. These overall changes in recreation will be combined with the environmental changes that have occurred as well as the anticipated changes due to each Project Option.

2.8.5   Mitigation Options

Review of existing recreation activities and interests will include the identification of opportunities for enhancement through mitigation measures. These could include modifications to the Status Quo and the Project Options. Other mitigation options could include enhancement of recreation opportunities in other locations or improving access or use of unaffected recreational opportunities within the Study Area.

2.8.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Causeway
Current and pre-Causeway recreation opportunities and levels of activity will be documented, including:

• current and historical recreation reports and statistics;
• current and historical maps, plans and photographs;
• interviews with municipal, provincial and recreation organizations officials and key informants identified through scoping network;
• reports on trends in recreational interests and needs;
• Study Area public, stakeholder, and Aboriginal community surveys on recreation needs and interests;
• Referrals and contacts provided by government departments; and
• Referrals and contacts provided at the Socio-Economic Workshop.

Environmental Effects of Project Options
Current recreation opportunities and levels of activity along with estimates for the future for each Project Option will be documented, including:

• environmental effect of Project Options on the head pond, River and shorelines;
• current recreation reports and statistics;
• current maps, plans and photographs;
• interviews with municipal, provincial and recreation organizations officials;
• reports on trends in recreational interests and needs;
• Study Area public, stakeholder, and aboriginal community surveys on recreation needs and interests;
• referrals and contacts provided by government departments; and
• referrals and contacts provided at the Socio-Economic Workshop.

Mitigation Options
Documentation of current recreation opportunities and level of activity along with estimates for the future for each project alternative and mitigation measure including:

• environmental effect of Project Options on the head pond, River and shorelines;
• environmental effect of recreation mitigation measures on the head pond, River and shorelines;
• current recreation reports and statistics;
• current maps, plans and photographs;
• interviews with municipal, provincial and recreation organizations officials;
• reports on trends in recreational interests and needs;
• Study Area public, stakeholder, and aboriginal community surveys on recreation needs and interests;
• referrals and contacts provided by government departments; and
• referrals and contacts provided at the Socio-Economic Workshop.

Data Sources
Inventory of Recreational Activities Along River and Shoreline - Baseline and Pre-1967. (NBDELG, NBTAP, NBDNRE, NBCSS, BNB).

Recreational Fishing Statistics and Licenses of Area. (NBAFA, NBTAP, NBCSS).

Inventory of Tourism Activities Along River and Shoreline - Baseline and Pre-1967. (NBTAP, NBCSS, BNB).

Interviews with agencies and key informants identified in scoping.

Tourism Visitation and Activities Statistics within Study Area. (NBTAP, BNB). Inventory of Recreational Boating and Commercial Vessel Activities and Traffic along River - Baseline and Pre-1967. (NBAFA, NBTAP, NBCSS).

Current and Pre-Causeway Provincial and Regional Recreation Reports.

River and Estuary Fisheries Catch and Value. (NBAFA).

Statistics Canada Demographic Data.

Fisheries, Tourism, and Vessel Traffic and Navigation Component Studies.

2.9   Public Health and Safety

2.9.1   Background

The construction, operation and decommissioning of the Project Options and Status Quo have potential environmental effects on public health and safety. These arise primarily from project-related potential accidents or through project-related changes in the environment that may have implications for public health and safety (e.g., changes in groundwater quality or release of contaminants). A number of public health and safety issues have been raised in the EA Guidelines.

2.9.2   Issues and Concerns

Vehicular Accidents
Some of the Project Options will result in changes in traffic patterns during construction. These changes may result in increased traffic congestion and potential for related vehicular accidents. During operation temporary traffic pattern amendment for maintenance may result in vehicular accidents. The Project Options may result in changes to the environment (e.g., microclimate changes such as frequency of fog or icing). These changes may affect vehicle accident rates. Induced tourism and recreational activities may give rise to increased traffic and related changes in accident rates.

Non-Vehicular Accidents
Project Options may result in changes to the environment that may result in changes on non-vehicular accident rates. These could relate to tourism and/or recreational activities for which increased or decreased accidents may occur. New tourism and recreational activities (e.g., tidal bore rafting) could introduce new potential non-vehicular accidents.

Quality and Quantity of Groundwater
Some Project Options may result in changes to groundwater resources, either through a change in quality (e.g., saltwater intrusion adjacent to the head pond) or quantity (e.g., changes in hydraulic relationships between the estuary/head pond and adjacent aquifers).

Contaminated Effluents
Project Options have the potential to re-distribute contaminated effluents into the estuary downstream of the Causeway. Some Project Options may result in the distribution of contaminated effluents from below the Causeway (e.g., sewage outfall, stormwater outfall) to the head pond area. These changes may result in changes in water quality that could lead to potential public health and safety issues through recreational contact or exposure.

Human Disease Vectors
Project Options may affect insect and wildlife habitat such that certain human disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes, and rodents) could result in changes to public health risk of exposure.

Flooding
Project Options will potentially change the risk of flooding in the head pond and/or other adjacent waters in the GMA. This may lead to potential changes in public health risk (e.g., due to flooding or catastrophic failure of structures).

Re-Distribution of Contaminants
Some Project Options may introduce or re-distribute contaminants that are of public health concern within the zone of influence of the project. This may include the harvesting of fisheries resources or edible plants.

2.9.3   Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and the Status Quo include the following as per the discussion of issues and concern in Section 2.9.2:

• change in vehicle accident rates;
• change in non-vehicular accident rates;
• change in groundwater resources quality;
• change in recreational water quality;
• change in vectors (e.g., mosquitoes and rodents);
• change in flood risk; and
• change in human food resources.

2.9.4   Cumulative Environmental Effects

Various past, present and future projects may have cumulative environmental effects on public health and safety that overlap with those of Project Options. These other projects have/do/will result in vehicle and non-vehicle accidents. Various activities affect groundwater quality and quantity in the aquifers adjacent to the head pond. Other projects may be affecting the presence and distribution of human disease vectors. The current projects do affect to some extent, accident rates related to recreational activities. There are flood risks associated with other projects that may overlap with those associated with the Project Options. Some past and present projects may result in cumulative environmental effects on human food resources (e.g., uptake of contaminants).

2.9.5   Mitigation Options

Mitigation of vehicle accidents related to Project Options will be addressed through the Transportation Network (Section 2.4). Measures include various traffic management and safety procedures for diversions around work areas and other measures that reduce peak traffic flows. Non-vehicular accident mitigation would be related primarily to tourism and recreational activities. These could be mitigated through signage, public awareness, and operator safety procedures.

Changes in groundwater resources could be mitigated through a range of potential measures including change in well construction, monitoring, and planning of water withdrawal. This will depend upon potential environmental effects, if identified through the environmental effects analysis.

Changes in water quality that are mitigable would include particular measures such as protection of the closed Moncton landfill. Re-distribution of existing municipal effluents may be difficult to mitigate. These measures would be similar for food resource harvesting of contaminated plants and animals.

Flood risk mitigation would be related to engineering design measures that ensure structure capacity and integrity meet anticipated ranges of natural events without failure.

2.9.6   Information Requirements

Environmental Effects of the Causeway and Project Options
For vehicle accidents, current accident statistics will be generated from existing data or model based on available traffic data.

Non-vehicle accidents will be obtained from various data sources and interviews of recreational and tourism operators and users.

Potential groundwater impacts will be evaluated using available data regarding wells and hydrogeology in the areas adjacent to the head pond. Professional judgement models will be used to evaluate the potential for groundwater quantity and quality related environmental effects.

Change in recreational water quality will be predicted using the water quality modelling from the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling studies.

Change in vectors (e.g., mosquitoes and rodents) will be estimated qualitatively by noting Project Option related changes in habitat.

Change in flood risk will be evaluated qualitatively based on engineering design considerations based upon the current design of infrastructure and the design of Project Options. Change in human food resources will be determined by establishing where, and what food resources are harvested within the zones of influence of Project Options. Water quality modelling will assist in evaluating the extent to which there may be changes in contaminant distribution levels in areas of food resource harvesting.

Data Sources
Except as described below, it is expected that much of the data for this socio-economic component, environmental effects on public health and safety, will be available from the other related socio-economic component studies.

Residual Data Requirements The principal residual data requirements include:

• non-vehicle accident rate statistics (to be gathered or estimated based on types of activities);
• evaluation of current flood risk arising from existing infrastructure; and
• location of human food resource harvesting within the zone of influence of the project (e.g., gaspereau).