DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE
FOR THE BIOPHYSICAL COMPONENT STUDIES
FOR THE PETITCODIAC RIVER CAUSEWAY
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Submitted to:
New Brunswick Department of Supply and Services
Fredericton, New Brunswick

Submitted by:
AMEC Earth & Environmental Limited
Fredericton, New Brunswick

July 22, 2003

TE23570.1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0   INTRODUCTION

1.1   PURPOSE

2.0   PRELIMINARY DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR BIOPHYSICAL COMPONENT STUDIES

2.1   AQUATIC COMPONENT STUDY - BENTHIC COMMUNITY

2.1.1 Issues and Concerns

2.1.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.1.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.1.4 Information Requirements

2.1.5 Schedule for Studies

2.2   AQUATIC COMPONENT STUDY - COMMERCIAL FISHERIES

2.2.1 Issues and Concerns

2.2.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.2.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.2.4 Information Requirements

2.2.5 Schedule for Studies

2.3   AQUATIC COMPONENT STUDY - FISH AND FISH HABITAT

2.3.1 Issues and Concerns

2.3.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.3.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.3.4 Information Requirements

2.3.5 Schedule for Studies

2.4   AQUATIC COMPONENT STUDY - MUDFLAT PRODUCTIVITY

2.4.1 Issues and Concerns

2.4.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.4.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.4.4 Information Requirements

2.4.5 Schedule for Studies

2.5   AQUATIC COMPONENT STUDY - SEDIMENT QUALITY

2.5.1 Issues and Concerns

2.5.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.5.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.5.4 Information Requirements

2.5.5 Schedule For Studies

2.6   AQUATIC COMPONENT STUDY - WATER QUALITY

2.6.1 Issues and Concerns

2.6.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.6.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.6.4 Information Requirements

2.6.5 Schedule For Studies

2.7   TERRESTRIAL COMPONENT STUDY - BIRDS

2.7.1 Issues and Concerns

2.7.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.7.3 Information Requirements

2.8   TERRESTRIAL COMPONENT STUDY - WILDLIFE AND VEGETATION

2.8.1 Issues and Concerns

2.8.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.8.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.8.4 Information Requirements

2.9   TERRESTRIAL COMPONENT STUDY - WETLANDS

2.9.1 Issues and Concerns

2.9.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.9.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.9.4 Information Requirements

2.10   ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENT STUDY - AIR QUALITY

2.10.1 Issues and Concerns

2.10.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.10.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.10.4 Information Requirements

2.10.5 Schedule for Studies

2.11   ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENT STUDY - CLIMATE

2.11.1 Issues and Concerns

2.11.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.11.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.11.4 Information Requirements

2.11.5 Schedule for Studies

2.12   ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENT STUDY - ODOUR QUALITY

2.12.1 Issues and Concerns

2.12.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.12.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.12.4 Information Requirements

2.12.5 Schedule for Studies

2.13   ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENT STUDY - SOUND QUALITY

2.13.1 Issues and Concerns

2.13.2 Project Environmental Effects

2.13.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

2.13.4 Information Requirements

2.13.5 Schedule for Studies

2.14   APPENDIX A

LIST OF ACRONYMS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Purpose

   This document provides the Study Terms of Reference (TOR) for the biophysical component of the Petitcodiac River Causeway Environmental Impact Assessment (“EIA”). This is a draft document for final review by the public, Aboriginal Community, Stakeholders, and Government Departments and Agencies. Comments from the Biophysical Workshop (held on April 26, 2003), as well as the New Brunswick Department of Supply and Services (NBDSS) and the Technical Review Committee (TRC) have been incorporated into this document.

The document describes the elements of the proposed work plan and study for each aspect of the biophysical environment that may be affected by the Project Options or Status Quo. Internal working documents, that will form the basis of discussion at the upcoming workshop, have been prepared for the following sub-components:

• Benthic Community;
• Commercial Fisheries;
• Fish and Fish Habitat;
• Mudflat Productivity;
• Sediment Quality;
• Water Quality;
• Birds;
• Wildlife and Vegetation;
• Wetlands;
• Air Quality;
• Climate;
• Odour; and
• Sound.

The TOR reflect the outcome of the work undertaken in the Scoping Phase of the EIA-Phase 1 as outlined in Section 2.1.1 of the Terms of Reference for the Environmental Impact Assessment for the Modifications to the Petitcodiac River Causeway (AMEC Earth & Environmental Limited (AMEC) 2003). These scoping activities have included discussions regarding the confirmation of project objectives, preliminary hydrodynamic and sediment transport modelling and the evaluation of existing information and identification of data gaps.

For each sub-component, the following considerations and/or questions were addressed:

• What are the issues and concerns associated with the Project Options and Status Quo?
• What are the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo?
• What are the potential cumulative environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo that may overlap with other past, present and future projects?
• What data, information or analysis is necessary to characterize the existing environment (current baseline) and the pre-causeway condition to the extent that it would support the evaluation of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and the Status Quo, and cumulative environmental effects?
• Are there any specific needs for information to support the development of mitigation strategies in the subsequent environmental effects analyses?
• Of the data, information or analyses required, are all of these available or are there any “data gaps”?
• What is required to fill these data gaps?
• What is the design and level-of-effort required to fill these data gaps?

In recommending the work plan, linkages to other studies (Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Modelling, Socio-Economic Component Studies and Biophysical Component Studies) are made, so that linking issues can be addressed later in the development of the TOR for those studies. It is important to recognize that these studies are intended at providing the information and analyses necessary to conduct the EIA. The Biophysical Component Study will not include environmental effects predictions or analyses, as these will be done in Phase 3 of the EIA.

2.0 PRELIMINARY DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR BIOPHYSICAL COMPONENT STUDIES

2.1 Aquatic Component Study – Benthic Community

2.1.1 Issues and Concerns

The benthic community, defined here as the benthic infauna and flora in the shore or coastal zone, is potentially at risk as a result of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo. There is concern that some Project Options and the Status Quo may result in changes to sediment deposition and erosional patterns within the Petitcodiac River project area that will cause changes in the benthic community. There is also a concern that environmental effects of Project Options may release contaminated soil from the former City of Moncton Landfill. Further unknown contaminated sediment deposited since construction of the causeway may be eroded and re-deposited both upstream and downstream of the causeway. Some stakeholders have expressed concern that such contamination may extend as far away as Shepody Bay or Chignecto Bay.

The release of these contaminants, should it be predicted to occur, may increase the potential for acute and chronic toxicity and bioaccumulation in benthic organisms (excluding commercially fished species such as lobster and scallop that are treated in the fishery environmental components) that come in contact or ingest these sediments.

Both upstream and downstream of the causeway, the benthic infauna and floral community in the near field may be eroded, smothered, or changed in character. This may be a result of changes in the sediment physical properties (e.g., particle grain size), quantity and chemistry (e.g., total organic content), and water flow regime (e.g., quality and quantity) as a result of Project Options. There is concern that some options may result in the loss of or change in the benthic community, both upstream and downstream of the causeway. Upstream of the causeway, some options will change a freshwater environment to an estuarine environment, and consequently loss and/or change in benthic community species.

There are also concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (landfills, sewage outfalls, industrial development, flood control, new Petitcodiac River bridge, Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway) that may contribute to the above issues for the benthic community.

2.1.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo include:

• Change in the benthic community;
• Avoidance by the benthic community because of bottom conditions; and,
• Mortality (both direct, i.e. death resulting directly from the project, such as smothering and indirect, i.e. death due to a third party factor, such as a change in the quality or quantity of food available) of the benthic community.

The benthic community could potentially be affected during all phases of the Project due to modifications to the flow regime (quantity and quality) and sedimentary regime. Upstream of the causeway, Options 2, 3 and 4 especially will alter the water and sedimentary regimes due to draining of the freshwater impoundment and conversion to an estuarine environment (for part of the year with Option 2), which may affect the benthic community. Contaminants may be re-suspended and/or eroded from the landfill.

Options 2, 3 and 4 for all phases may, depending on the predicted zone of influence from the modelling study, also affect the benthic community downstream of the causeway and as far away as the far field in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay.

Upstream of Option 1 during the operational phase may contribute to an anoxic bottom for the benthic community in the vicinity of the causeway during low flow summer periods. This may be a result of stagnant overlying waters that are stratified due to temperature and a bottom salt-water layer.

2.1.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

There is a potential for project-related cumulative environmental effects on the benthic community as a result of other past, present and future projects that will be carried out. These other projects include past landfills and dykes, present sewage outfalls, the Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway, and the future Petitcodiac River Bridge that may contribute to changes in the quality of water and sediment.

2.1.4 Information Requirements

Data Needs

Information and data are needed to characterize the benthic community under pre-causeway and status quo conditions to assess project-related environmental effects. It would be necessary to establish the baseline benthic community for the impoundment and river channel (near field (from Salisbury to Outhouse Point), mid-field (from Outhouse Point to Hopewell), far field (beyond Hopewell)) above and below causeway.

To assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects as a result of the Project Options, predictions from the Modelling Component Study are required to provide data on changes in the sediment and water regimes (spatial and temporal) that may affect the benthic community. The results from the hydrodynamic and sediment modelling would determine if and where changes in sediment and water quality may occur, including areas of sediment deposition and erosion, and therefore the benthic community that may be affected. In addition, ice modelling studies and predictions of quantity, duration and movement of ice for each Project Option with respect to data on ice scouring of the benthic community would be required.

Data to characterize the extent of the benthic community that may be affected as a result of poor sediment and water quality would be required for mitigation strategies of Project Options.

Data needs for full cost accounting would be required to characterize extent of significant and sensitive benthic community areas that may be affected as a result of each Project Option and any associated benthic commercial (other than lobster or scallop), recreational and tourism activities that may be reduced, eliminated, or improved.

Data Availability

Data on the benthic community are limited and anecdotal for pre-causeway conditions and for only upstream, near-field areas of the Petitcodiac River in the tributaries. These data come from a few studies on salmon habitats in the 1940’s. Also, some data are available prior to the construction of the causeway. Data on the benthic community in general for the status quo are limited to the near-field upstream areas of the causeway (i.e. from the causeway up to Salisbury). These data come from studies that were conducted for the 1997-1999 Trial Gate Opening experiments for the Petitcodiac River Causeway. Limited benthic community data are available in the far-field downstream area of the causeway in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay, and obtained during the tidal power studies in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.

Residual Data Needs

The residual data required for the pre-causeway and Status Quo include characterization and mapping of the benthic community in the Project study area.

Residual data are required to determine if and where the benthic community will be affected as a result of changes in sediment deposition and erosion patterns, changes in the salinity regimes, and ice scouring associated with options and the status quo. This information will be used for a comparative environmental effects analysis and cumulative environmental effects analysis.

Scope of Work Proposed to Fill Residual Data Needs

The benthic community for the pre-causeway and Status Quo above the causeway will be characterized and mapped using:

1. Available benthic data from the Trial Gate Opening experiments;
2. Interpretation of aerial photos and data collected for other environmental component purposes (e.g., location in the river or along submerged shoreline of habitats for waterfowls, shorebirds, partially exposed wetlands and vegetation, bottom-feeding fish, and areas of known commercial or recreational benthic resources such as clams and bottom fish, for example) where a benthic community is likely to be present using professional judgment. These data sources may also serve to assess significant and sensitive benthic communities upstream of the causeway for full cost accounting.
3. Field sampling at some interpretative locations identified in the preceding step to groundtruth and at the same location as the two sediment quality stations in the impoundment will be conducted. The stations in the impoundment will also serve as confirmatory data with the Trial Gate Opening experiments. Similar methods to the trial gate experiments will be used to collect, identify and enumerate benthic organisms.

The benthic community for the pre-causeway and Status Quo below the causeway in the near, mid- and far fields will be characterized and mapped using:

1. Available benthic data from Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay;
2. Interpretation of aerial photos and data collected for other environmental component purposes (e.g., location in the river, bays or along submerged shorelines of habitats for waterfowls, shorebirds, partially exposed wetlands and vegetation, bottom-feeding fish, and areas of known commercial or recreational benthic resources such as clams, scallops, groundfish, and lobster, for example) where a benthic community is likely to be present using professional judgment. These data sources may also serve to assess significant and sensitive benthic communities downstream of the causeway for full cost accounting.
3. Field sampling at some interpretative locations (Figure 1) identified in the preceding step to groundtruth and at the same four locations in the river channel for the sediment quality stations in the downstream near, mid- and far fields will be conducted. Field sampling of the benthic community in the mid river, left bank and right bank will be conducted with a benthic grab, possibly a 1-square metre quadrat placed in the inter-tidal zone, to collect, identify and enumerate benthic organisms.

Predictions from the sediment, hydrodynamic and ice models will provide data on sediment deposition and erosion patterns, salinity regimes, and ice scour associated with the Project Options and trends for the Status Quo. The results from these modelling efforts will determine where and if options may result in changes to the benthic community.

2.1.5 Schedule for Studies

The schedule for the benthic field studies is similar to that for the sediment quality stations. Desk studies will be conducted in parallel with the field studies.

The assessment of Project Options and project-related environmental effects on the benthic community, which will be mostly based on the outcome of modelling results, would occur in Winter 2003/Spring 2004.

2.2 Aquatic Component Study – Commercial Fisheries

2.2.1 Issues and Concerns

Lobster and scallop are the commercial fishery resources identified by stakeholders as being potentially at risk in the far field as a result of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo.

The lobster resource and fishery in the Inner Bay of Fundy has increased since the early 1990’s. This is consistent with earlier increases in the Outer Bay of Fundy and Scotia coast in the 1980’s. The Alma Fishermens’ Association (AFA) reports that the lobster fishery has now expanded farther to the northeast in the Inner Bay of Fundy, and even into Shepody Bay. They also report that the conditions for lobster fishing have improved in the entire region of Chignecto Bay. Prior to the construction of the causeway, lobster traps would be filled with mud and very difficult to recover after several days in the water. Now, they are free of sediment and lobster fishing is a viable industry in the Inner Bay of Fundy as witnessed by the large increase in the number of lobster fishers. There also now appears to be more small juvenile lobsters when there was no nursery habitat in the Inner Bay of Fundy prior to the causeway. All these observations may indicate a habitat containing less mud and soft sediments that could increase the carrying capacity for lobsters.

In a similar vein, fine gravel is the best bottom type for scallops. This species may have also benefited from a bottom containing less soft sediment in the Inner Bay. Although scallop landings in the Inner Bay reached their lowest levels since 1980 in 1997, at approximately 140 tonnes, the AFA has expressed the view that this may be because of over-fishing rather than a decrease in productive capacity.

There is concern that some Project Options and the Status Quo may result in changes to sediment deposition and erosional patterns and to water quality in the far field as far away as Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay. These changes may affect the quality of the bottom and consequently affect the fishing areas and the scallop and lobster fisheries, or areas of juvenile lobster production. There is also a concern that environmental effects of Project Options may potentially contaminate the water column and sediment due to the erosion of the Moncton landfill and unknown contaminated sediment deposited since construction of the causeway that may be re-deposited downstream of the causeway. Some stakeholders have expressed concern that such contamination may extend as far away as Shepody Bay or Chignecto Bay. The release of these contaminants, should it be predicted to occur, may increase the potential for acute and chronic toxicity and bioaccumulation in scallop and lobster that come in contact with or ingest these sediments.

Downstream of the causeway in the far field, the commercial fishery habitats may be eroded, smothered, or changed in character. This may be a result of changes in the sediment physical properties (e.g., particle grain size), quantity and chemistry (e.g., total organic content, contaminants), and water flow regime (e.g., quality) as a result of Project Options. Consequently, these changes may result in changes to the benthic community, such as “lemon grass” for example, associated with the commercial scallop and lobster fisheries.

There are also concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (landfills, sewage outfalls, industrial development, flood control, new bridge, Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway) that may contribute to the above issues for lobster and scallop fisheries.

2.2.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo include:

• Change in fisheries resources.

The commercial fishery resources in the far field in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay could potentially be affected during all phases of Options 2, 3 and 4, depending on the predicted zone of influence from the modelling study. The concern for environmental effects would be the greatest for Option 4. This may be due to modifications to the flow regime (quality) and sedimentary regime. Contaminants may be re-suspended and/or eroded from the landfill.

2.2.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

There is a potential for project-related cumulative environmental effects on the fisheries resources as a result of other past, present and future projects that will be carried out. These other projects include past landfills and dykes, present sewage outfalls, the Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway, and the future Petitcodiac River Bridge that may contribute to changes in the quality of water and sediment in the far field.

2.2.4 Information Requirements

Data Needs

Information and data are needed to characterize the bottom substrate type and areas of the lobster and scallop fisheries under pre-causeway and status quo conditions to assess project-related environmental effects. It would be necessary to establish the baseline commercial fishing areas below the causeway in the far field as far away as Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay.

To assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects as a result of the Project Options, predictions from the Modelling Component Study are required to provide data on changes in the sediment and water regimes (spatial and temporal) that may affect the areas of fisheries resources in the far field. The results from the hydrodynamic and sediment modelling would determine if and where changes in sediment and water quality may occur, including areas of sediment deposition and erosion, and therefore the areas of fisheries resources that may be affected.

Discussions with Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Habitat Management Group need to be initiated regarding potential harmful alteration, disruption or destruction of fish habitat (HADD) and habitat compensation associated with Project Options.

Data to characterize the extent of the fishery resource areas that may be affected as a result of poor sediment and water quality and areas of sediment deposition would be required for mitigation strategies of Project Options.

Data needs for full cost accounting would be required to characterize extent of fisheries resource areas and habitats that may be reduced, eliminated, or improved as a result of each Project Option.

Data Availability

Data on the commercial fishery areas in the far field are limited and anecdotal for pre-causeway conditions. Data on the fishery areas for the Status Quo are available from studies that were conducted for the 1997-1999 Trial Gate Opening experiments for the Petitcodiac River Causeway and ongoing stock assessments for the lobster and scallop fisheries in the Inner Bay of Fundy by DFO.

Bathymetric, sediment and water quality data are available for Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay obtained during the tidal power studies in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. Raw data from a multibeam and side-scan sonar survey in 1995 and for 1966 for Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay could be available at the Atlantic Geological Survey of Canada at BIO.

Residual Data Needs

The residual data required for the pre-causeway and Status Quo include characterization and mapping of the bottom substrate type in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay of the Project far-field study area. In addition, areas of lobster and scallop fisheries would be required.

Modelling is required to predict changes in sediment deposition/ erosion patterns, water quality and associated changes in areas of commercial fisheries resources. This information will be used for a comparative environmental effects analysis and cumulative environmental effects analysis of fisheries resources.

Discussions with DFO Habitat Management Group regarding potential HADD and habitat compensation associated with options need to be initiated.

Scope of Work Proposed to fill Residual Data Needs

The mapping of habitat areas for the lobster and scallop fisheries in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay for pre-causeway conditions will be assessed from interpreting 1966 side-scan sonar data to characterize and map the bottom substrate type and using professional judgment of likely fisheries areas. Fisheries areas for the Status Quo are known and maps exist for the far field. Characterization and mapping of bottom substrate for the Status Quo in the far field will be obtained from the 1995 multibeam hydrographic data. These data will provide confirmatory data between substrate type and known areas for lobster and scallop fisheries resources. Mapping of substrate type for pre-causeway and Status Quo conditions will also serve to characterize the sedimentary regime and assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects.

Predictions from the sediment and hydrodynamic models will provide data on sediment deposition and erosion patterns and on water quality regimes associated with the Project Options and trends for the Status Quo. The results from these modelling efforts in the Modelling Component Study will determine where and if options may result in changes to fisheries resource areas.

Discussions with DFO Habitat Management Group will be initiated regarding potential HADD and habitat compensation associated with the options.

2.2.5 Schedule for Studies

The commercial fisheries studies will be conducted in the Spring/Summer of 2003.

The assessment of Project Options and project-related environmental effects on the commercial fisheries resource areas, which will be mostly based on the outcome of modelling results, would occur in Winter 2003/Spring 2004.

2.3 Aquatic Component Study – Fish and Fish Habitat

For the purposes of this aspect of the component study, Fish and Fish Habitat includes the fish and their habitat within the freshwater and estuarine environment that could be affected by the project.

2.3.1 Issues and Concerns

Fish habitat is potentially at risk because of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo. There is concern that some Project Options and the Status Quo may result in changes to sediment deposition and erosion patterns and to the flow regime (quantity and quality) within the Petitcodiac River system that will cause changes to fish habitat.

There is concern that some options may result in the loss of and/or change in the fish habitat, both upstream and downstream of the causeway. Upstream of the causeway, several options will change a freshwater environment to an estuarine environment, and consequently produce a loss and/or a change in the fish habitat.

There are a number of issues related to the ability of fish to migrate between habitats that are vital to their life cycles. These issues primarily involve impediments to fish movement such as the causeway barrier itself, mud deposition as a result of interrupted tidal flow, delayed or non-migration due to a lack of water flow or decreased water velocity, and migratory bottle necks where abnormally high predation may result. They also involve mitigation strategies that have been attempted including operation of the gates to attract fish to and past the causeway and to discharge downstream-migrating fish from the impoundment, the scheduling of discharges to mobilize deposited sediment, and operation of the fishway.

Since it was constructed in 1968, the causeway has been a physical barrier to upstream and downstream migration of fish. Operation of the associated fishway, and an evolving gate manipulation strategy has apparently not provided adequate upstream or downstream fish passage. The principal fish species of concern are the Atlantic salmon, American shad, alewives, blueback herring, smelt, tomcod, and striped bass, Atlantic sturgeon, and lamprey eels.

With the causeway in place, the mud in the section between the Gunningsville Bridge and the Petitcodiac River Causeway builds up over the course of the summer and during the winter when there are low river discharge conditions. Release from the impoundment is often not sufficient to scour away the plug. The tide during the half moon periods is not large enough in some cases to exceed the bottom elevation of the mud. Salmon in September may not have enough of a water column to even reach the causeway. At the same time, downstream migrating juvenile gaspereau and shad, if they were discharged from the impoundment, would be washed onto warm, “soupy” mudflats where they would be suffocated. Atlantic salmon smolts start to migrate downstream when they experience water temperatures of 7o to 10oC. They lose their physiological capacity to survive in salt water at an accelerating rate as water temperatures exceed 10o C. Migrating smolts might revert to a freshwater lifestyle, becoming landlocked, or fail to survive their entry into the ocean should they encounter high temperatures for an extended period of time. There is a concern that water temperatures in the impoundment could become very warm and negatively affect the degree of smoltification of the migrating salmon, or in fact jeopardize their safe movement to the sea.

Salmon smolts migrate almost passively from the freshwater environment with their rate of travel being dependent largely on the speed and direction of the current they are experiencing. Therefore, the impoundment has two potential negative effects. The reduced water velocity may delay smolt migration for an unknown period. It would also subject them to potential predation by non-native smallmouth bass and chain pickerel as well as birds.

The Rainbow smelt is an anadromous species that is the first to spawn in the freshwater environment in the spring. The gate opening strategy currently employed by the New Brunswick Department of Transportation and DFO should allow smelt to migrate successfully into the river. This is because there is no mud plug yet established in the Gunningsville-to-causeway corridor, and because the gates are left open for a period when the tidal elevation is in excess of that in the impoundment. This should allow smelt to swim with the tide into the impoundment. Still, it is not known how effective this strategy actually is.

In addition, since the construction of the causeway, there have been little formal data gathered on the species that inhabit the Petitcodiac River estuary. It is not definitively known what species are potentially affected by any of the causeway change strategies.

The Petitcodiac River was the site of a popular fishery for Atlantic salmon until the causeway was constructed. Within several years, the Petitcodiac River salmon population was severely affected by upstream fish passage difficulties at the causeway, and angler success declined. The population and sport fishery collapsed entirely when the Inner Bay of Fundy (IBF) stock assemblage collapsed in the late 1980s. The IBF salmon populations are now formally listed as “Endangered”. A recovery plan has been developed, however the probability of its ultimate success, and the re-establishment of the sport fishery is unknown. A realistic evaluation of the probability of success and the value of the resulting fishery, if any, is needed for the EIA.

The presence of the impoundment and the subsequent introduction of smallmouth bass have produced a sport fishery for the species. The magnitude and value of this fishery is unknown. Smallmouth bass prey on other fish such as Atlantic salmon smolts.

There are also concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (e.g., landfills, sewage outfalls, industrial development, flood control, new bridge, Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway) that may contribute to changes in the sedimentary and hydrodynamic regimes, and consequently change the fish habitat.

2.3.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo include:

• Changes in fish habitat type and quality;
• The maintenance of potentially unacceptable conditions for fish passage;
• Changes in recreational fisheries resources; and
• Direct mortality of fish.

The fish habitat could potentially be affected during all phases of the Project due to modifications to the flow regime (quantity and quality) and sedimentary regime. Upstream of the causeway, particularly under Options 2, 3 and 4, the water and sedimentary regimes due to draining of the freshwater impoundment and conversion to an estuarine environment (for part of the year with Option 2) will modify the fish habitat. This would affect the nursery habitat quality for gaspereau.

Options 2, 3 and 4 for all phases may also affect the fish habitat downstream of the causeway and as far away as the far field in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay. This includes the water depth and turbidity in the upper end of Shepody Bay and the lower river where a formerly productive fishery for American shad existed. This fishery has declined to where it now little more than a subsistence or recreational activity.

Under Option 1 during the operational phase an anoxic (i.e. lacking oxygen) bottom layer of water may be created immediately upstream the causeway during low flow summer periods. This situation may result when stagnant fresh water overlies a salt-water layer that has no contact with the atmosphere. Fish habitat in the area would be negatively affected. Also under Option 1, the estuarine fish habitat during low flow summer periods may be eliminated because of a virtual cessation in river flow because of evaporative losses from the impoundment.

Options 2 through 4 may produce a release of contaminants into the environment that may affect fish and fish habitat.

Each Project Option may change the sport fish community of the Petitcodiac River system. For example, Options 2 through 4 may eliminate smallmouth bass populations and the related recreational fisheries. The Project Options may all provide access to habitat and improved populations of other sport fish species such as Atlantic salmon, Rainbow smelt, American shad, or an introduced salmon (e.g. brown trout).

Some options may result in direct mortality to fish due to construction and operational activities (e.g., instream work during construction, maintenance dredging).

As discussed in the previous section, Options 1 and the status quo may maintain conditions under which Atlantic salmon smolt migration is impaired.

2.3.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects are modified due to overlap with past, present and future projects. There is a potential for project-related cumulative environmental effects on fish habitat from existing landfills, dykes, sewage outfalls, the Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway and the future Petitcodiac River Bridge, all of which may contribute to changes in the quality of water and sediment.

2.3.4 Information Requirements

Data Needs

To assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects because of the Project Options, predictions from the Modelling Component Study are required to provide data on changes in the sediment and water regimes (spatial and temporal) that may affect fish habitat. The results from the hydrodynamic and sediment modelling would determine the degree and location of changes to sediment and water quality that may occur, and therefore the degree of change to fish habitat quality.

Data are required to characterize the extent of fish habitat changes resulting from each Project Option. This data availability will allow full cost accounting that will measure changes to associated commercial, recreational and tourism activities that may be reduced, eliminated, or improved.

Specific information and data needs to assess project-related environmental effects and the Status Quo include:

1. Determination and mapping of existing and pre-causeway fish habitat types within the project Study Area;
2. Information on sediment quality (physical properties, chemistry and benthic community), water quality (e.g., salinity regime, temperature, dissolved oxygen, total suspended solids, etc.), and fish use of existing habitat;
3. Predicted change (magnitude, spatial and temporal extent) to fish habitat, including the current bottom elevations between the bridge and causeway over the course of the summer;
4. An update of existing data on resident and migratory fish in the Petitcodiac River estuary to determine the current components of the resident and migratory fish community in the area;
5. To address the potential effects on shad and the fishery for them, historical summer transects of the bottom elevations in the inner Shepody Bay and lower river are need for the pre-causeway and Status Quo time periods, as well as suspended solids concentrations in the pre-causeway fishery.
6. Monitoring the smelt spawning run to assess the effectiveness of the gate opening strategy (assumed to be a major component of Option 1);
7. The evolving gate opening strategy should also be assessed by netting within the impoundment to determine what diadromous species exist there;
8. The fishway design for Option 1 must be advanced in sufficient detail to ensure that it can provide fish passage to meet the objectives of the study as outlined in the EIA Guidelines and EIA Terms of Reference, and must give consideration to potential requirements as maintenance dredging, and predator protection/elimination;
9. Determine the potential migratory impairment to salmon smolts resulting from the presence of the impoundment.
10. Initiate discussions with DFO Habitat Management Group regarding potential HADD and habitat compensation associated with Project Options and the Status Quo to support Full Cost Accounting analyses.

Data Availability

Data on fish habitat are limited and anecdotal for pre-causeway conditions. Aerial photographs and bathymetry data are available from pre-causeway and Status Quo conditions that could serve to map fish habitats. Some stream habitat information in tributaries above the causeway has been collected mostly by local volunteer groups. There are limited data available on sediment quality, water quality and present fish use of existing habitat (see related components), and most of which are available from the 1997-1999 Trial Gate Opening experiments for the Petitcodiac River Causeway.

Residual Data Needs

The residual information required for the pre-causeway and Status Quo include characterization and mapping of the fish habitat types within the Project study area. Sampling programs are planned to determine sediment quality, water quality, and present fish, scallop and lobster use of existing habitat (refer to relevant environmental component). Modelling is required to predict change in sediment deposition/ erosion patterns, water quality and associated changes in fish habitat. Data are needed on the degree of smolt mortality introduced by temperature and predator effects within the impoundment. Discussions with DFO Habitat Management Group regarding potential HADD and habitat compensation associated with options need to be initiated.

Scope of Work Proposed to Fill Residual Data Needs

The scope of work proposed to fill residual data needs includes:

1. Data integration from the following to produce final baseline fish habitat mapping within the project area: habitat survey data, aerial photography, multibeam bathymetry data, sediment quality, water quality, and present fish use of existing habitat.
2. Obtain information from modellers on predicted changes in sediment deposition and erosion patterns and water quality associated with each option, and then determine what will be the resulting fish habitat changes.
3. Conduct surveys in the impoundment and estuary to confirm fish presence and current use of habitat (Figure 2). Focus on diadromous fish in the impoundment to evaluate the effectiveness of current gate operating regime.
4. Monitor the smelt spawning run.
5. Monitor temperature and smolt migration rates within the lower lotic section of the Petitcodiac River and the impoundment.
6. Initiate discussions with DFO Habitat Management Group regarding potential HADD and habitat compensation associated with the options.

2.3.5 Schedule for Studies

The schedule for studies is as follows:

1. Fieldwork: Summer 2003 (field programs)
2. Habitat map: Fall 2003
3. Predicted changes: Fall/Winter 2003
4. DFO consultation: Spring/Summer 2003

2.4 Aquatic Component Study – Mudflat Productivity

2.4.1 Issues and Concerns

The productivity of mudflats in Shepody Bay is potentially at risk as a result of Project Options and Status Quo for the Causeway. There is concern that project options may result in changes to hydrodynamics of the Petitcodiac River, which may, in turn, result in changes to sediment deposition and erosion patterns in Shepody Bay. Mudflat productivity within Shepody Bay could be diminished if these changes result in shifts in mudflat size, location, sediment particle size distribution, or water content of the mud.

Some mudflats in the Bay of Fundy support dense populations of an infaunal amphipod, Corophium volutator (Corophium). These same mudflats provide highly productive feeding habitat for migrating shorebirds, in particular the Semipalmated Sandpiper. An estimated three-quarters of the worldwide population of this bird species makes a migratory stop to mudflats in the Bay of Fundy to feed on invertebrates, and in particular the infaunal amphipod Corophium. The success of the Semipalmated Sandpiper and other shorebird populations is therefore directly linked to the abundance of Corophium.

Scientists have shown that Corophium abundance is tightly linked to abiotic habitat factors such as a specific sediment particle size distribution and water content of mud.

Two mudflats in Shepody Bay (Daniel’s Flat and Grande Anse) have been monitored over time for Corophium abundance and Sandpiper abundance. In 1994, CWS documented a dramatic drop in Sandpiper abundance and discovered a corresponding dramatic decrease in Corophium abundance at these two mudflats. Daniel’s Flat recovered within 1-2 years, but Grande Anse has remained unproductive in terms of Corophium abundance since that time, although it had supported high densities of Corophium prior to 1994. Some scientists have suggested that this shift in productivity is linked to causeway gate maintenance that occurred in 1993.

2.4.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo include:

• Change in mudflat productivity, as defined by Corophium abundance.

Change in mudflat productivity has the potential to occur during construction and operation of all phases of all the Project Options due to modifications to the hydrodynamics of the Petitcodiac River, resulting in changes in sediment deposition and erosion patterns. Options 1, 2, 3 and 4 for all phases may change the sediment deposition and erosion patterns within the River downstream of the causeway and as far away as the far field in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay. Similar changes may also occur as a result of gate maintenance for Status Quo.

2.4.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

The presence of environmental effects of the Project with respect to mudflat productivity overlaps with those of other past, present and future projects that will be carried out. Past landfill projects and, to some extent, sewage outfalls may change the downstream patterns of sediment deposition and erosion in the far field. The Project may contribute to cumulative environmental effects of sediment movement downstream in the far field with past projects such as the Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway. The Project may contribute to cumulative environmental effects of sediment movement downstream of the causeway with the future project of the new Petitcodiac River Bridge. The piers of the new bridge have a relatively minor potential to modify sediment scouring and deposition patterns in the far field, with the Project contributing to this cumulative environmental effect.

2.4.4 Information Requirements

Data Needs

To assess project-related environmental effects, information and data are needed to characterize Corophium abundance in mudflats within Shepody Bay. It would also be necessary to map the extent of existing productive mudflats within Shepody Bay to establish baseline conditions.

It would be useful to determine the magnitude of change in sediment deposition and erosion patterns over time and space that Corophium populations can withstand without a significant change in their abundance. It would be useful to investigate the nature of gate maintenance that occurred in 1993, estimate the related changes in hydrodynamics and sediment deposition and erosion, and thereby determine whether there was the potential to change the habitat quality of the mudflats in relation to supporting dense Corophium populations.

To assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects as a result of the project options and status quo, predictions from the Modelling Component Study would be required to provide data on sediment deposition and erosion patterns (spatial and temporal) associated with the options and status quo. The results from the hydrodynamic and sediment modelling would determine if and where changes in sediment particle size distribution and water content of mud may occur.

In addition, ice modelling studies and predictions of quantity, duration and movement of ice for each Project Option with respect to data on sediment scouring and deposition would be required.

Data Availability

Mudflats at Grande Anse and Daniel’s Flat have been monitored for Corophium abundance regularly by CWS and other parties, with data spanning 1977 to 2000. CWS has an ongoing annual monitoring program for these two mudflats, looking at shorebird and Corophium abundance. Mudflat mapping in Shepody Bay is in progress with NBDNR based on 2001 air photos, and should be ready within a few months.

Residual Data Needs

The residual data required to assess the potential for changes in mudflat productivity in Shepody Bay include predictions from the Modelling Component Study on sediment deposition and erosion patterns, and predictions on changes to mudflats, including extent, location, particle size distribution and water content of mud. In addition, a professional opinion is required as to how much change in sediment deposition, particle size distribution and water content of mud that Corophium can tolerate without a significant effect on abundance. It would also be useful, although not critical, to determine the nature of gate maintenance that occurred in 1993 to consider whether this may have resulted in the ecological shift observed on Daniel’s Flat and Grande Anse in 1994.

Residual data needs are required to determine if and where mudflat productivity will change as a result of changes in sediment deposition and erosion patterns associated with options and the status quo. This information will be used for a comparative environmental effects analysis.

Scope of Work Proposed to Fill Residual Data Needs

Predictions from the sediment and hydrodynamic models will provide data on sediment deposition and erosion patterns associated with the options and trends for the status quo. For each project option, the modelling efforts will determine if and where there may be a change in sediment deposition and erosion patterns compared to the status quo in the Modelling Component Study.

To obtain a professional judgment on thresholds for impacts on Corophium abundance, a review of existing data on factors influencing Corophium abundance and distribution will need to be conducted by a scientist with specific experience working in this area of study. This is currently underway (at least in part) by Dr. M. Brylinski (Acadia Centre for Estuarine Research, Acadia University) and may be available this spring.

Information on the gate maintenance program in 1993 is needed from NBDOT to predict whether this program may have had an influence on the observed ecological shift at Grande Anse and Daniel’s Flat in 1994.

2.4.5 Schedule for Studies

The schedule for obtaining residual data is Spring/Summer 2003. The assessment of project options and project-related environmental effects on mudflat productivity, which will be largely based on the outcome of modelling results, would occur in Winter 2003/Spring 2004.

2.5 Aquatic Component Study – Sediment Quality

2.5.1 Issues and Concerns

The quality of sediment (sediment chemistry, physical properties and contamination) is potentially at risk as a result of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo. There is concern that some Project Options may result in changes to sediment deposition and erosional patterns within the Petitcodiac River project area. Some Project Options may also result in re-suspension and movement of potentially contaminated riverbed sediments, as well as erosion of river banks including fill materials such as the former City of Moncton Landfill sites. There is a concern that environmental effects of Project Options may release contaminated soil from the former City of Moncton Landfill sites and be deposited both upstream and downstream of the causeway because of the tide, and as far away as Shepody Bay or Chignecto Bay. The release of these contaminants may increase the potential for acute and chronic toxicity and bioaccumulation in life forms (including commercially fished species such as lobster) that come in contact or ingest these sediments. Both upstream and downstream of the causeway, the benthic fauna and floral community in the near field may be eroded, smothered, or changed in character because of changes in the sediment physical properties (e.g., particle grain size) and chemistry (e.g., total organic content) as a result of Project Options. Some Project Options may even cause these environmental effects in the far field downstream of the causeway. Of particular concern in the downstream far field is the importance of sediment to lobsters, scallops and the borrowing mud shrimp, Corophium volutator, which is a food source to the semipalmated sandpiper and other shorebirds. There is a concern that sediment-laden ice cakes on the river banks and flowing along the shoreline and in shallow water depths under the influence of tides scour the bottom and contribute to sediment erosion and deposition. There are also concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (landfills, industrial development, flood control, new Petitcodiac River bridge, Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway) that may contribute to the above issues of sediment quality.

2.5.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo on the sediment quality include:

• Change in physical properties and chemistry of sediment; and,
• Change in patterns of sediment erosion, re-suspension and deposition.

Change in the above sediment qualities and sedimentary regime could potentially occur primarily during operation for all phases due to modifications to the flow regime (quantity and quality). Upstream of the causeway, Options 2, 3 and 4 especially will alter the sedimentary regime, sediment dynamics and sediment quality due to draining of the freshwater impoundment and conversion to an estuarine environment (for part of the year with Option 2). The upstream tidal intrusion under these Options will increase the salt content of sediment and increase the water velocity and duration of flow that may modify the sedimentary regime and transport potentially contaminated sediments upstream of the causeway.

Options 2, 3 and 4 for all phases may also change the sedimentary regime and sediment quality downstream of the causeway and as far away as the far field in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay.

Option 1 during the operational phase may contribute to sediment retention upstream and downstream of the causeway. In addition, sediments upstream and in the vicinity of the causeway may become anoxic during low flow summer periods because of stagnant overlying waters that are stratified due to temperature and a bottom salt-water layer.

2.5.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

The presence of environmental effects of the Project with respect to sediment quality does overlap with those of other past, present and future projects that will be carried out. Past landfill projects, and to some extent sewage outfalls, are of primary importance in the near field that may have contaminated sediments on a local scale both upstream and downstream of the causeway, and possibly downstream in the mid- and far fields through the action of tides and flow regime of the river such as spring runoff. The Project may contribute to overall cumulative environmental effects by indirectly contaminating sediments as well in the Study Area, possibly as far as Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay, through sediment erosion of these landfills and transport of the contaminants.

The Project may contribute to cumulative environmental effects of the sedimentary regime downstream in the far field with past projects such as the Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway. Upstream of the causeway, the Project also contributes to the cumulative environmental effects of the sedimentary regime with past dyke projects that protected agricultural lands from flooding. The Project may contribute to cumulative environmental effects of the sedimentary regime downstream of the causeway in the near field with the future project of the new Petitcodiac River Bridge. The piers of the new bridge may locally modify sediment scouring and depositional patterns in the river, with the Project contributing to this cumulative environmental effect.

2.5.4 Information Requirements

Data Needs

Information and data are needed to characterize the sediment quality in the environment under pre-causeway and status quo conditions to assess project-related environmental effects. It would be necessary to establish baseline sediment quality in terms of sediment chemistry and particle size analysis for the impoundment and river channel (near field, mid-field, far field) above and below causeway. The sediment quality would be evaluated in relation to established guidelines.

To assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects as a result of the Project Options, predictions from the Modelling Component Study would be required to provide data on sediment deposition and erosion patterns (spatial and temporal) and on salinity regimes associated with the options. The results from the hydrodynamic and sediment modelling would determine if and where changes in sediment quality may occur. In addition, ice modelling studies and predictions of quantity, duration and movement of ice for each Project Option with respect to data on sediment scouring and deposition would be required.

Data needs for mitigation strategies of Project Options would be required to characterize areas that may have to be dredged as a result of poor sediment quality and disposal of the spoil. If the results indicate unacceptable sediment quality in some areas, then a detailed sampling program would be recommended to delineate the extent and magnitude of contamination. Subsequently, it may be necessary to conduct a risk assessment if sediment modelling predicts that an option would contribute to the erosion or re-suspension of these contaminated sediments.

Data needs for full cost accounting would be required to characterize areas of potentially poor sediment quality as a result of each Project Option and the commercial and recreational fishing and tourism that may be reduced or eliminated. The areas that may be affected by poor sediment quality as a result of a Project Option would also have to be evaluated to assess the costs associated with dredging and disposal of the spoil.

Data Availability

Data on physical properties and chemistry of sediment are limited and anecdotal for pre-causeway conditions and for only upstream, near-field areas of the Petitcodiac River in the tributaries. These data come from a few studies on salmon habitats in the 1940’s. Also, some data are available prior to the construction of the causeway. Data on physico-chemical properties of sediment for the status quo are limited to the near-field upstream and downstream areas of the causeway. These data come from studies that were conducted for the former City of Moncton Landfill sites, the 1997-1999 trial gate opening experiments for the Petitcodiac River Causeway, and the construction of the piers for the new Petitcodiac River Bridge. These data are provided with a reasonable level of quality assurance/quality control standard (e.g., detection limit) that allows comparison of the data to established guidelines. Some toxicity data are also available from the impoundment area during the trial gate opening experiments. Limited physical and chemical properties of sediment data are available in the far-field downstream area of the causeway in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay, and obtained during the tidal power studies in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.

For pre-causeway and status quo conditions, data to assess zones of erosion and deposition along the river banks in the near and mid-fields (i.e., change in shoreline, river shape and channelization, status quo surface areas of deposition and erosion since pre-causeway times) can be obtained from available aerial photographs and from the terrestrial vegetation component study. Within the river, data on areas of erosion and deposition can be obtained from bathymetric cross-sections taken throughout the river after the causeway was constructed and for the status quo. In the far field, as far as Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay, shoreline aerial photos and video surveys exist for post-causeway conditions. Pre-causeway shoreline data has not been identified to date. To characterize areas of sediment deposition and erosion within Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay in the far field, bathymetric data exist for post-causeway conditions taken in 1978 during the tidal power studies, and more recently in 1995; there is the possibility that data for a 1966 survey exists for this area for pre-causeway conditions that is in the possession of the Atlantic Geological Survey of Canada at BIO. These data will serve to characterize the sedimentary regime and the cumulative environmental effects of past and present projects (e.g., pre-causeway upstream dykes and the present Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway) and the contribution of the Project to this cumulative environmental effect.

Residual Data Needs

The residual data required to obtain on sediment quality are chemical and particle size analyses across the river channel in the near-field freshwater environment above the causeway up to Salisbury (0 to 20 km) as confirmatory data, and in the near, mid- and far fields below the causeway in the estuarine and marine environments. These data will be evaluated in relation to established guidelines. It is not anticipated that sediment quality will change in the far-field freshwater environment, which is the Petitcodiac drainage upstream of Salisbury, because tidal effects for the various Project Options and the status quo may extend as far as only Salisbury (e.g., changes in water level, exposure of riverbank and submerged substrate to the atmosphere, upstream penetration of tidal prism). Sediment chemistry and particle size data will also be made available from core and grab samples as part of data collection in support of the sediment modelling effort.

Residual data needs are required to determine if and where sediment quality will change as a result of changes in sediment deposition and erosion patterns and changes in the salinity regimes associated with options and the status quo. This information will be used for a comparative environmental effects analysis.

Scope of Work Proposed to Fill Residual Data Needs

It is suggested that two stations upstream of the causeway be sampled in the near-field freshwater environment. The location of the first station is situated immediately above the causeway in the impoundment, and the second station approximately mid-way between Turtle Creek and Little River in the Petitcodiac River. Four stations in the river channel below the causeway are suggested to sample. The downstream stations are in the near-field estuarine environment (two stations), mid-field estuarine environment (one station) and far-field marine environment (one station). The selection, location and concentration of these stations are based on preliminary modelling of sediment erosion and deposition occurring in the near-field estuarine and freshwater environments, respectively. A minimum of two sediment samples will be collected at each station with a 1-m long sediment corer. If a sediment corer cannot be used because the sediments are compacted or consolidated, then surface sediments will be collected with either an Ekman or Ponar grab. Sampling should be done under gates open and gates closed conditions. Parameters to analyze include particle size analysis, hydrocarbons, PAHs, PCBs, pesticides, trace metals, mercury, total inorganic/organic carbon, and nitrogen (TKN, NH3). A composite sample will be analyzed from the sediment core, which will be comprised of 1-cm sediment sections taken every 10 cm of core length. Follow-up toxicity work, along with benthic community analysis (see below) may be recommended if sediment chemistry exceed established guidelines. The sediment results will be compared to established guidelines (CCME, Ocean Disposal) and mapped.

In addition to the above stations, sediment from 12 boreholes (Figure 1) (three upstream and nine downstream in the near and mid fields will be analyzed as indicated above for 1-m sediment cores. The composite sample from the borehole, however, will be comprised of the top 10 cm of each 1-m section of core. These boreholes are being conducted to support data required for the Modelling Component Study. Bottom sediments at other stations will also be collected seasonally for modelling purposes and analyzed for particle grain size distribution and organic content. These data will be combined with the sediment data from this study to assess and characterize sediment quality in terms of sediment chemistry and particle size in the project Study Area.

Predictions from the sediment and hydrodynamic models will provide data on sediment deposition and erosion patterns and salinity regimes associated with the options and trends for the status quo. For each Project Option, the modelling efforts will determine if and where there may be a change in sediment quality compared to the status quo in the Modelling Component Study.

2.5.5 Schedule For Studies

The schedule for the field studies is to sample once during low flow period (late Summer/early Fall 2003) at 6 stations, one station at the Gunningsville Bridge to be sampled post-freshet (late Spring/early Summer 2003), during low flow period (late Summer/early Fall) and Fall with gates open and closed at Spring tide. This will allow for follow-up sampling in 2004, if deemed necessary for EIA.

The assessment of Project Options and project-related environmental effects on sediment quality changes, which will be mostly based on the outcome of modelling results, would occur in Winter 2003/Spring 2004.

2.6 Aquatic Component Study – Water Quality

2.6.1 Issues and Concerns

Water quality of the Petitcodiac River may be affected as a result of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and the Status Quo.

Changes to the hydrology in the Petitcodiac River resulting from the Project Options may change the zones of influence from various outfalls, particularly the Greater Moncton Sewerage Commission outfall at Outhouse Point and other point and non-point sources (e.g., Moncton landfill, urban runoff). This may affect water quality (including bacteria concentrations) above the causeway, relative to the Status Quo. In addition, the Project Options may result in change to the salinity regime above and below the causeway, which may result in changes to the mixing zones of fresh and salt water. This will affect the aquatic environments and ecosystems, as freshwater habitat may be reduced above the causeway, and estuarine habitat may be increased above and below the causeway. As mentioned in the sediment quality environmental component, there is concern that some Project Options may result in re-suspension and movement of contaminated riverbed sediments into the water column and therefore affecting water quality. The release of these contaminants may increase the potential for acute and chronic toxicity and bioaccumulation in the aquatic environment.

2.6.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo include:

• Change in the water chemistry;
• Change in bacteria concentrations in water; and,
• Change in the mixing zone of fresh and salt water.

Change in water quality could potentially occur during the construction phase of any Project Option because of reduced flow conditions and during operation of all Options but particularly 2, 3 and 4 due to modifications to the flow regime (quantity and quality). Upstream of the causeway, Options 2, 3 and 4 especially will alter the water quality regime and mixing zones due to draining of the freshwater impoundment, increased bedload movement from the freshwater impoundment and conversion to an estuarine environment (for part of the year with Option 2). The upstream tidal intrusion under these Options will increase the amount of salt water that will move past the existing causeway, increasing the extent of the estuarine environment into the impoundment area. This may cause redistribution of various urban effluents through the future estuary. This will also result in an increase in water velocity and duration of flow that may increase transport of potentially contaminated re-suspended sediments and suspended sediment load upstream of the causeway.

Option 1 during the operational phase may contribute to higher water temperature in the impoundment during low flow summer periods, with the possibility for a thermocline below which anoxic conditions may develop and contribute to potential anoxic bottom waters and sediments. For part of the year with Option 2, a denser saltwater bottom layer may be present above the sediments that could contribute to stratification of the water column and also potentially contribute to anoxic conditions in the bottom water and in the sediment.

2.6.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

The presence of environmental effects of the Project with respect to water quality does overlap with those of other past, present and future projects that will be carried out. Cumulative environmental effects include municipal sewage and storm sewer releases into the Petitcodiac River, leachate seepages from existing landfills into the Petitcodiac River, agricultural and forestry activities within the Petitcodiac River watershed, the Shepody Dam and the Memramcook River causeway, for example. The Project Options may contribute to overall cumulative environmental effects by potentially changing the mixing zone of municipal effluents, re-suspending sediment deposited by past and present projects, and changing the mixing zones of fresh and salt water.

2.6.4 Information Requirements

Data Needs

Information and data are needed to characterize the water quality in the environment under pre-causeway and Status Quo conditions to assess project-related environmental effects. It would be necessary to establish baseline water quality in terms of water chemistry and bacteria for the impoundment and river channel (near field, mid-field, far field) above and below causeway. The water quality data would be evaluated in relation to established guidelines and development of site-specific guidelines. Data on the quality of point-source effluents (e.g., Moncton sewage outfall) would be useful.

To assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects as a result of the Project Options, predictions from the Modelling Component Study would be required for water quality (spatial and temporal) and salinity regimes associated with options to determine if and where changes in water quality may occur. Point source data may assist in the evaluation of the re-distribution of point-source effluents.

Data needs for mitigation strategy will be similar to those identified above. If water quality data are available in the areas that are to be affected (predicted from the Modelling Component Study), this information will then be useful in determining mitigation strategies, if required.

Data needs for full cost accounting would be required to characterize areas of potentially poor water quality as a result of each Project Option and consequently the freshwater supply, commercial and recreational fishing, and tourism that may be reduced or eliminated. The areas that may be affected by poor water quality as a result of a Project Option would also have to be evaluated to assess the costs associated with mitigating this environmental effect.

Data Availability

Data on water quality from several sampling stations located on the Petitcodiac River watershed upstream from the Gunningsville Bridge are available for post-causeway conditions. In particular, one water quality sampling station has been sampled consistently since 1971 by New Brunswick Department of Environment and Local Government/Environment Canada (Petitcodiac River at old Highway 2, station now at new Trans Canada Highway crossing). Data from sampling at the causeway and at Salisbury is available for 30-40 sampling events between 1970, and 1999. Water quality data are also available from numerous other sampling stations (i.e., water quality measurements from the impoundment and various other sampling stations during the Trial Gate Opening experiments); however, temporal data from these areas are limited. Water quality data are also available from the Moncton Sewerage Commission and from the Moncton landfill studies. There are very limited data available for pre-causeway conditions. These data on water quality are anecdotal and for only upstream, near-field areas of the Petitcodiac River in the tributaries. These data come from a few studies on salmon habitats in the 1940’s. Other sporadic data are available prior to the construction of the causeway. Environment Canada has information for one sampling event conducted in 1966 at the Trans Canada Highway crossing near the town of Petitcodiac. Also, there is very limited data on water quality of the main channel of the Petitcodiac River downstream of the Gunningsville Bridge. DFO obtained water quality data in the late 1970’s to early 1980’s in Shepody Bay and Chignecto Bay.

Residual Data Needs

1. Obtain data on baseline water chemistry, and coliform bacteria for impoundment and river channel (near field, mid field, far field) above and below causeway. Evaluate these data in relation to established and site-specific guidelines.
2. Determine if and where water quality will change as a result of changes in flow regime at the causeway, and changes in the salinity regimes associated with the Project Options.

Scope of Work Proposed to Fill Residual Data Needs

1. Sample Collection: suggest 6 stations in total, two downstream stations toward the mouth of the Petitcodiac River in the mid- and far field, one station at Gunningsville Bridge in the near field, one station at the causeway, one station within the impoundment area, and one station upstream of the impoundment (Figure 1). This sampling provides for baseline and confirmatory data for near field, mid-field and far-field study areas. Sampling should be done under gates open and gates closed conditions. Parameters to include: general water chemistry, trace metals including mercury, biological oxygen demand (BOD) and coliforms.
2. Obtain predictions from modellers on changes to freshwater/saltwater mixing zones and changes to flow regime at the causeway associated with each option. For each option, determine if and where there may be a change in water quality compared to baseline considering major known point and non-point effluent contributions. This will be assessed in the Modelling Component Study.

2.6.5 Schedule For Studies

The schedule for the field studies is to sample once during low flow period (late Summer/early Fall 2003) at six stations, one station at the Gunningsville Bridge to be sampled post-freshet (late Spring/early Summer 2003), during low flow period (late Summer/early Fall) and Fall with gates open and closed at Spring tide. This will allow for follow-up sampling in 2004, if deemed necessary for EIA.

The assessment of Project Options and project-related environmental effects on water quality changes, which will be mostly based on the outcome of modelling results, would occur in Winter 2003/Spring 2004.

2.7 Terrestrial Component Study – Birds

2.7.1 Issues and Concerns

Waterfowl, shorebirds, seabirds and terrestrial marsh birds are all potentially at risk due to the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo. There is concern that some options may result in the loss of or change in habitat, both upstream and downstream of the causeway. Upstream of the causeway, some options will change a freshwater environment to a marine estuarine environment. Downstream of the causeway, habitat may be eroded or changed in character. There is concern about the release of contaminants due to the potential erosion of the landfill and their toxicity and bioaccumulation potential (chronic and acute toxicity). There are concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (landfills, sewage outfalls, industrial development, flood control, new bridge, etc.). Of particular concern is the importance of Corophium volutator as a food source to the semipalmated sandpiper.

2.7.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo include:

• Change in habitat;
• Avoidance of habitat; and
• Mortality (both direct and indirect).

Change in habitat could potentially occur primarily during operation for all phases due to modifications to the flow regime (quantity and quality). Upstream of the causeway, Options 2, 3 and 4 especially will alter habitat quality and quantity due to the draining of the freshwater pond and conversion to an estuarine environment.

2.7.2.1 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects in the area.

The cumulative environmental effects of past and present projects can be characterized by establishing the current baseline and noting the contribution of these projects to changes in wildlife habitat. Establishing the pre-causeway condition will illustrate some of the changes attributable to the construction and operation of the causeway since 1967. Urban and municipal development, including the construction of the Moncton landfill have modified terrestrial habitat and the new Petitcodiac River Bridge have all resulted in cumulative environmental effects. The construction of the Shepody and Memramcook causeways have resulted in changes to bird habitat that may overlap with those of the Petitcodiac River Causeway project related environmental effects. Birds are mobile in the Petitcodiac/Shepody Bay area and effects within the zone of influence of the project may overlap with those acting on other areas (e.g., Mary’s Point).

2.7.3 Information Requirements

The current baseline and pre-1967 habitats available for birds are required to evaluate cumulative environmental effects and understand the contribution of past and present projects to cumulative environmental effects.

Modelling will be used to predict Project Option related erosion and deposition of mudflats in the river as well as erosion of the riverbanks. Modelling will also predict what erosion may occur in other areas of the river that may cause interactions with the former landfill site and the sewage outfall.

Preliminary modelling suggests erosion downstream of some mudflats in the near field and midfield. The available habitats and the species inhabiting the zone of influence will be characterized by contacting the Atlantic Conservation Data Centre (AC CDC), NB Museum, Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS) and the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources.

There is a general knowledge of the use of the Petitcodiac River Ecosystem by migratory birds, most recently from volunteer bird surveys conducted at various locations in all seasons, coupled with the CWS surveys in the impoundment during the trial gate opening in 1999. There is ongoing birding activity in this area by several of the local nature groups in conjunction with CWS. The methodology used for the volunteer-based surveys would be adequate baseline data for an Environmental Effects Monitoring program for migratory birds.

Delineation of mudflats, wetlands and salt marshes from aerial photography will assist in quantification of habitat available at present and will aid in potential mitigation if required. Further bird surveys or studies are not anticipated, rather modelling results and airphoto interpretation are considered to be a sufficient source of information to determine potential effects to bird habitat in the Study Area.

An assessment of the food source Corophium volutator will be carried out as part of the aquatic component and is therefore, not addressed in this component study.

2.8 Terrestrial Component Study – Wildlife and Vegetation

2.8.1 Issues and Concerns

Changes in habitat may change species composition. Project options may cause environmental effects on habitat of species at risk protected by the Federal Species At Risk Act (SARA) and the New Brunswick Endangered Species Act and regulations. All species of special conservation concern – including species listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC), identified as S1, S2, or S3 by the AC CDC, designated in provincial listings, or of otherwise high conservation priority will be considered. Plant species at risk are covered under SARA and as such, are not to be disturbed. Should species of rare plants occur along the riverbank, they might be affected by potential changes in the channel due to project options, as may be the case for other wildlife in the area.

Wildlife and plants are all potentially at risk due to the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo. There is concern that some options may result in the loss of or change in habitat, both upstream and downstream of the causeway. Upstream of the causeway, some options will change a freshwater environment to a marine estuarine environment. Downstream of the causeway, habitat may be eroded or changed in character. There is concern about the release of contaminants due to the potential erosion of the landfill and their toxicity and bioaccumulation potential (chronic and acute toxicity). There are concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (landfills, sewage outfalls, industrial development, flood control, new bridge, etc.). These environmental effects are expected to occur in the near field (i.e., upstream in the impoundment and downstream to Outhouse Point.)

2.8.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation include:

• Change in habitat;
• Avoidance of habitat; and
• Mortality (both direct and indirect).

Change in habitat quality and habitat availability or quantity could potentially occur primarily during operation for all phases due to modifications to the flow regime (quantity and quality). The Status Quo may result in continued changes to wildlife habitat in the future. Upstream of the causeway, Options 2, 3 and 4 especially will alter habitat quality and quantity due to the draining of the freshwater pond and conversion to an estuarine environment.

2.8.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects in the area.

The cumulative environmental effects of past and present projects can be characterized by establishing the current baseline and noting the contribution of these projects to changes in wildlife habitat. Establishing the pre-causeway condition will illustrate some of the changes attributable to the construction and operation of the causeway since 1967. Urban and municipal development, including the construction of the Moncton landfill have modified terrestrial habitat and the new Petitcodiac River Bridge have all resulted in cumulative environmental effects. The construction of the Shepody and Memramcook causeways have resulted in changes to terrestrial habitat but these may not overlap with those of the Petitcodiac River Causeway project related environmental effects.

2.8.4 Information Requirements

The current baseline and pre-1967 terrestrial wildlife and vegetation are required to evaluate cumulative environmental effects and understand the contribution of past and present projects to cumulative environmental effects.

Modelling will be used to predict Project Option related erosion and deposition of mudflats in the river as well as erosion of the riverbanks. Modelling will also predict what erosion may occur in other areas of the river that may cause interactions with the former landfill site and the sewage outfall.

Preliminary modelling suggests erosion downstream of some mudflats in the near field and midfield. The available habitats and the species inhabiting the zone of influence will be characterized by contacting the AC CDC, NB Museum, Canadian Wildlife Service and the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources (NBDNR).

There have been few systematic surveys of rare plants in the Petitcodiac River system, therefore, the extent of information relating to the location and habitats to support rare plant species is largely unknown. In order to predict potential environmental effects of Project Options on the rare plants in this system, it is necessary to understand their distribution and the habitat(s) available to support these species. To fill this data gap we will use recent airphotos to identify any areas that have the potential to support rare species in the near field. Any areas in the near field that are identified as either supporting or having high potential to support rare plant species will be surveyed (Figure 3). There is already an adequate level of information for rare plants between the causeway and the Gunningsville Bridge.

Delineation of mudflats, wetlands and salt marshes from aerial photography will assist in quantification of habitat available at present and will aid in potential mitigation (i.e., calculation of compensation) if required.

2.9 Terrestrial Component Study – Wetlands

2.9.1 Issues and Concerns

Wetlands are potentially at risk due to the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo. There is concern that some options may result in the loss of or change in wetland habitat, both upstream and downstream of the causeway. Upstream of the causeway, some options will change a freshwater environment to a marine estuarine environment. Downstream of the causeway, habitat may be eroded or changed in character. There is concern about the release of contaminants due to the potential erosion of the landfill and their toxicity and bioaccumulation potential (chronic and acute toxicity). There are concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (landfills, sewage outfalls, industrial development, flood control, new bridge, etc.).

2.9.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and Status Quo include:

• Changes in type and extent of habitat.

Change in habitat could potentially occur primarily during operation for all phases due to modifications to the flow regime (quantity and quality). Upstream of the causeway, Options 2, 3 and 4 especially will alter wetland habitat quality and quantity due to the draining of the freshwater pond and conversion to an estuarine environment. With the Status Quo and Option 1, there may be some minor ongoing changes in wetland type and extent.

2.9.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

There is potential for the water quality to be changed by leachate from the landfill and sewage outfalls and thus affect the quality of newly created habitat.

2.9.4 Information Requirements

There are at present only a small number of wetlands along the impoundment as evidenced from the Maritimes Wetlands Atlas, which total 15.7 hectares. Additionally there is a Ducks Unlimited impoundment of 19 hectares found along the north side of the river approximately 1.5 kilometres above the causeway. Sedimentation may be creating other small marshes along the impoundment.

Project options are likely to change the size, shape and location of these wetlands. Tidal influence into the impoundment resulting from some of the project options will cause the creation of salt marsh where presently there is none. The creation of salt marsh above the causeway will likely have implications for wildlife species (both flora and fauna) as there will be a change in quality and quantity of habitat available. To understand potential areas of erosion and accretion, modelling will be carried out.

Wetlands will be delineated using the latest aerial photography in the near field and mid-field. The wetlands will be classified and representative wetlands of each type will be site visited in order to verify the photo interpretations.

Water quality and quantity are important variables in wetland ecology. Major changes in either can significantly change the character of a wetland. Since there exists potential to change both, specific measurements will be made in order to identify any detectable changes. To address the issue of water quality environmental effects on wetlands, water samples from each wetland will be tested for alkalinity, conductivity, and pH in order to monitor any changes in water quality resulting from future activity. Water samples will be tested for alkalinity, conductivity, and pH in order to monitor any changes in water quality resulting from future activity.

Biophysical field investigations will be conducted according to a methodology employed previously in New Brunswick, which is best defined in Dickinson (1994). This technique defines habitat as types, classes, and subclasses, based on standardized definitions of wetland habitat. The habitat definitions are largely dependant on vegetative assemblages, and permanence and degree of inundation with water. This approach will provide sufficient data to perform a functional analysis as part of any wetland EEM program (if required).

2.10 Atmospheric Component Study – Air Quality

2.10.1 Issues and Concerns

The air quality in the area influenced by the project is potentially at risk as a result of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and the status quo.

Several of the Project Options have the potential to change the characteristics of emissions of conventional pollutants to the airshed influenced by the project. These changes in pollutant emission levels could affect ambient air quality. Of particular concern are the potential environmental effects of the Project Options on ambient air quality with respect to ambient concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, total suspended particulate matter and fine particulate matter. The issue of greenhouse gases and carbon sinks has been addressed in the Climate Study.

There are also concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (including industrial and urban development, bridges, damns, and flood control) that could contribute to the above air quality concerns.

2.10.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and status quo include:

• Change in air quality (change in conventional pollutant emissions).

Changes in air quality could potentially occur during all phases of each of the Project Options.

During construction, maintenance, and decommissioning activities, conventional pollutant (including carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, total suspended particulate matter and fine particulate matter) could be emitted by construction and maintenance equipment and activities (to a varying degree depending on the amount of construction and/or maintenance required for each Project Option), and from emissions associated with the redirection of vehicle traffic during these activities. The potential environmental effects of changes in conventional pollutant emissions to the atmospheric environment during construction, maintenance and decommissioning activities are expected to be temporary and reversible in nature.

Potential surface changes that could potentially result from the operation of the Project Options (particularly with Options 2, 3, and 4 which have the potential for greatest changes in the flow and sedimentary regimes) include changes in water levels, exposing or covering mudflats, the growth of vegetation on exposed areas, and the effect of fluctuating water levels in the impoundment area (salt water/tides moving into and out of the impoundment). The surface changes caused by the Project Options could affect the emissions of conventional pollutants to the project airshed.

Project Options which expose or cover mudflats could potentially result in increases or decreases in fugitive emissions of particulate matter (including fine particulate matter) during wind events. Underwater vegetation which is exposed to air, or surface vegetation which is submerged by changes in the water level caused by the Project Options will potentially produce a variety of conventional pollutants as they biodegrade.

Due to the nature of the potential environmental effects, they must be considered in context of both local air quality and regional air quality.

2.10.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

The presence of environmental effects of the Project with respect to air quality does overlap with those of other past, present and future projects that will be carried out. These overlaps are primarily concerned with other sources of conventional pollutants. Potential cumulative environmental effects could result when conventional pollutant emissions from past, present and planned future sources (such as industrial facilities, landfills, and urban growth) are added to those potentially produced by the Project Options. Other projects such as flood control, dams and bridges could potentially cause changes to the water levels and sediment deposition patterns in addition to those potentially caused by the Project Options, resulting in cumulative environmental effects on the air quality in the study airshed.

The effects of Long Range Transport of Air Pollutants (LRTAP) from neighbouring jurisdictions, combined with past, present and future projects occurring in the study area, may also result in cumulative environmental effects on the air quality in the study airshed.

2.10.4 Information Requirements

Characterization of existing, pre-causeway, and status quo environment

Information and data are needed to characterize the conventional pollutant emissions to the atmospheric environment under pre-causeway and status quo conditions. These data will be used to identify cumulative environmental effects of past and present projects, and to establish a baseline for the project-related environmental effects assessment. It would be necessary to establish baseline ambient air quality in terms of the concentrations of conventional pollutants (including carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, total suspended particulate matter and fine particulate matter). Due to the potential for environmental effects from the Project Options on air quality for both a local and regional scale, the ambient air quality must be characterized on both a local and regional basis.

Assessment of project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects

To assess project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects as a result of the Project Options, predictions from the Sediment and Hydrodynamics Modelling Component Study would be required for flow and salinity regimes, sediment deposition, and erosion patterns (spatial and temporal) to determine if and where changes to vegetation growth (including vegetation loss and decay as well as areas of new growth) would occur. These data would be used in the assessment of environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects due to emissions of conventional pollutants from decaying vegetation.

An inventory of existing emissions of conventional pollutants to the airshed influenced by the project is necessary to assess the potential cumulative environmental effects of emissions to the airshed. This inventory of existing emissions would include the major point sources in the study airshed as well as the contribution of emissions from mobile sources and windblown dust from currently exposed mudflats.

The typical types and duration of construction, maintenance and decommissioning activities would be identified for each Project Option and for the status quo. Emission estimation would be conducted using typical conventional pollutant emission characteristics for the identified equipment and activities to predict total emissions to the atmospheric environment. The results of this study would be used to conduct the environmental effects assessment for these activities as well as assess potential cumulative environmental effects.

The contributions of LRTAP to the study area may be assessed by reviewing the monitored ambient air quality data in Southern New Brunswick.

Data Availability

Ambient air quality monitoring data for conventional pollutants are available from one monitoring station operated in the Moncton area (since 1998), as well as from monitoring stations operated in Southern New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island through the National Air Pollutant Surveillance (NAPS) Network. Data are also available from an acid deposition network operated throughout New Brunswick.

The NBDELG has lists of sources of air contaminants in the Moncton area which have operating approvals under the Air Quality Regulation, as well as an emissions inventory of conventional pollutants from existing Class 1 and 2 sources. These data can be supplemented by the Environment Canada National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) which has emissions data for non-conventional pollutants for a number of facilities in the Moncton area. In addition to these data, emission factors are readily available for mobile and stationary sources which can be used in the estimation of emissions from sources not covered in the existing emissions inventories.

For pre-causeway and status quo conditions, some of the data required to assess windblown dust emissions in the study area can be obtained qualitatively from aerial photographs (i.e., change in shoreline, river shape and channelling, status quo surface areas of deposition, vegetation, and erosion since pre-causeway times).

Residual Data Needs

The remaining data required to characterize the pre-causeway and status quo air quality and support the evaluation of potential environmental effects in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) are as follows:

1. An emissions inventory for substantial emissions of conventional pollutants from sources (mobile and stationary) not included in the existing emissions inventories. The preparation of this emissions inventory will require traffic data for vehicles operating in the study airshed.
2. Long term ambient monitoring data for the Moncton region.
3. Predictions of flow regimes, sediment deposition, and erosion patterns (spatial, temporal) from the sediment and hydrological modelling study.

Scope of Work Proposed to fill Residual Data Needs

1. It is proposed that an emissions inventory for conventional from sources (mobile and stationary) will be developed for the area influenced by the project. This inventory will include sources covered by other emissions inventories created by the NBDELG and Environment Canada, with emissions from sources, and of pollutants, not included in existing inventories being estimated using provincial inventories and applicable emission factors.
2. A desktop study would be conducted using long-term monitoring data for neighbouring regions (from the NAPS Network) to estimate long-term ambient air quality in the study airshed.
3. Predictions would be obtained from sediment and hydrodynamic modellers on flow regimes, sediment deposition and erosion patterns associated with the options. For each option, determine if and where there may be a change in conventional pollutant emission characteristics compared to baseline.

2.10.5 Schedule for Studies

The schedule for obtaining residual data is Spring/Summer 2003. The assessment of project options and project-related environmental effects on air quality, which will be largely based on the outcome of modelling results and the analysis of residual data obtained, would occur in Winter 2003/Spring 2004.

2.11 Atmospheric Component Study – Climate

2.11.1 Issues and Concerns

The climate in the study area may be influenced by the project as a result of the potential environmental effects of the Project Options and the status quo.

Several of the Project Options have the potential to change the characteristics of specific climatic parameters in the region influenced by the project. Of particular concern are the potential environmental effects of the Project Options on climate and micro-climate with respect to local wind speeds, wind directions, temperature distributions, humidity, intensity and frequency of fog events, generation of water vapour and precipitation types and amounts.

Also of concern are the potential environmental effects of the Project Options on changes to local agriculture productivity, forestry and fisheries caused by local changes in the weather.

Another concern are the potential environmental effects of the Project Options on greenhouse gas emission and the loss or enhancement of carbon sinks, which could both potentially contribute to climate change. The results from the air quality work would be combined with and incorporated into the assessment of effects on climate in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).

There are also concerns associated with the cumulative environmental effects of other projects (including industrial and urban development, bridges, dams, and flood control) that could contribute to effects on climate and micro-climate.

The potential for effects of the environment on the project, such as the effects of sea level rise, increased occurrence of storm surges, or other climate change effects on the project, are also of concern.

2.11.2 Project Environmental Effects

The potential environmental effects of the Project Options and status quo include:

• Change in local weather including wind speed, direction, temperature distribution, humidity, precipitation;
• Change in intensity and frequency of fog events;
• Change in greenhouse gas emissions; and
• Change in carbon sinks.

Changes in local weather (including fog events), greenhouse gas emissions, and the loss or enhancement of carbon sinks could potentially occur during all phases of each of the Project Options.

During construction, maintenance, and decommissioning activities, greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) and water vapour could be emitted (to a varying degree depending on the amount of construction and/or maintenance required for each Project Option), and from emissions associated with the redirection of vehicle traffic during these activities. Decomposition gases may also be released from decaying vegetation exposed by changes to flow patterns required during construction or decommissioning activities. The potential environmental effects of changes in local weather and greenhouse gas emissions during construction, maintenance and decommissioning activities are expected to be temporary and reversible in nature.

The enhancement or loss of existing carbon sinks during construction, maintenance and decommissioning activities would mainly result from clearing activities, as well as the loss or growth of vegetation on surfaces affected by changes in water flow patterns during construction or decommissioning activities

Potential surface changes that could result from the operation of the Project Options (particularly with Options 2, 3, and 4 which have the potential for greatest changes in the flow and sedimentary regimes) include changes in water levels, exposing or covering mudflats, the growth of vegetation on exposed areas, and the effect of fluctuating water levels in the impoundment area (salt water/tides moving into and out of the impoundment). The surface changes caused by the Project Options could affect the emissions of greenhouse gases (and water vapour) to the study airshed as well as cause the loss or enhancement of carbon sinks, potentially resulting in environmental effects.

Project Options which expose or cover mudflats could potentially result in small increases or decreases in wind speeds and directions, during local wind events. Underwater vegetation which is exposed to air, or surface vegetation which is submerged by changes in the water level caused by the Project Options will potentially produce a variety of greenhouse gases as they biodegrade.

In situations where the potential surface changes caused by the Project Options would result in vegetated areas being submerged or eroded, carbon sinks could be lost or decreased. However these Project Options also have the potential of creating carbon sinks through the deposition of sediment and formation of land areas supportive of vegetation growth.

Changes to the impoundment /river water surface area will result in changes to the amount of water vapour generated from the impoundment. Thus, there may be potential changes to the local climate, or micro-climate, specifically the intensity and frequency of fogging. There may also be potential changes to the temperature and effects of agriculture productivity, forestry and fisheries.

Finally, potential changes in sea levels that may result from climate change effects may result in higher tides in the Bay of Fundy and increased flow of the tidal bore in the Petitcodiac River, thereby potentially affecting the structural integrity of the existing structures and new structures resulting from some of the Project Options. The potential for the increased occurrence of storm surges and flooding from climate change effects may also occur.

Due to the nature of the potential environmental effects, they must be considered in context of both local weather, regional climate, and global climate change.

2.11.3 Cumulative Environmental Effects

Cumulative environmental effects arise where the Project environmental effects overlap with past, present and future projects that will be carried out.

The presence of environmental effects of the Project with respect to climate and microclimate does overlap with those of other past, present and future projects that will be completed. These overlaps are primarily concerned with other sources of greenhouse gases as well as other potential changes to the surface (land and water) in the study area. Potential cumulative environmental effects could result when greenhouse gas emissions from past, present and planned future sources (such as industrial facilities, landfills, and urban growth) are added to those potentially produced by the Project Options. Other projects such as flood control, dams and bridges could cause changes to the surface features including woodlands, water levels and flooded area, and sediment deposition patterns in addition to those potentially caused by the Project Options, resulting in cumulative environmental effects on the local weather, fog events and agriculture/forestry/fisheries in the study airshed.

2.11.4 Information Requirements

Characterization of existing, pre-causeway, and status quo environment

Information and data are needed to characterize regional climate, local climate and the greenhouse gas emissions to the atmospheric environment under pre-causeway and status quo conditions. These data will be used to identify cumulative environmental effects of past and present projects, and to establish a baseline for the project-related environmental effects assessment.

It would be necessary to establish baseline climate and microclimate conditions in terms both regional and local weather (specifically wind directions, wind speeds, temperature distributions, humidity, and emissions of greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) and water vapour. Due to the potential for environmental effects from the Project Options on climate for both a local and regional scale, the existing climate should, to the extent practical, be characterized on both a local and regional basis.

To characterize the existing carbon sinks in the areas influenced by the project, an inventory of these sinks must be developed. This inventory would have to consider carbon sinks such as vegetation, forests and water bodies. This information will be obtained in the air quality work and the results incorporated into the environmental effects assessment.

Assessment of project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects

An understanding of the changes in surface features such as topography, land use, water surface area and plant growth is essential to providing an assessment of the project-related environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects as a result of the Project Options. The predictions from the Sediment and Hydrodynamics Modelling Component Study would be used to determine if and where changes to vegetation growth (including vegetation loss and decay as well as areas of new growth) would occur. These data would be used in the assessment of environmental effects and cumulative environmental effects on local weather and on agriculture productivity, forestry and fisheries.

An inventory of existing emissions of greenhouse gases (and water vapour) to the airshed influenced by the project is necessary to assess the potential cumulative environmental effects of emissions to the airshed. This inventory of existing emissions would include the major point sources in the study airshed, and emissions from mobile sources.

The typical types and duration of construction, maintenance and decommissioning activities would be identified for each Project Option and for the status quo. Emission estimation would be conducted using conventional greenhouse gas emission characteristics for the identified equipment and activities to predict total emissions to the atmospheric environment. The results of this study would be used to conduct the environmental effects assessment for these activities as well as assess potential cumulative environmental effects.

The potential for effects of the environment on the project, due to climate change or other phenomena, would be assessed by reviewing t